Lions vs. Chiefs SGP Odds, Predictions Week 1: Fade the Shootout Hype With This Parlay?

Our favorite Lions vs. Chiefs same-game parlay pick based on the best NFL odds is fading the hype of the NFL season opener.

The Detroit Lions travel to the belly of the beast at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday to open the 2023 NFL season against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.

There's plenty of hype surrounding this game and the return of football, but given Jared Goff's road struggles last season, will this matchup fall short of the lofty expectations for a high-scoring affair?

Here are our best Lions vs. Chiefs SGP picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

• Under 53.5 (-115) ????
• Jerick McKinnon anytime touchdown scorer (+175) ???
• Jahmyr Gibbs 25-plus receiving yards (-188) ????

Combined odds: +840 (via FanDuel)

SGP predictions for Lions vs. Chiefs

After many long months without football, of course we'd all love to see a scoring bonanza in the first game with the NFL back in our lives. But is this inflated number getting to wishful-thinking territory on Thursday night?

For as explosive as the Kansas City offense was in 2022, only seven Chiefs games cleared a 53.5-point total last year. Eight games cleared the threshold for Detroit last season, although it only happened twice in eight Detroit road games as Jared Goff lacked consistency away from Ford Field. No Chris Jones for KC could make Goff's life easier, but the Arrowhead crowd will be daunting.

FanDuel lists the Under 53.5 with -115 odds. With -110 odds on the same number, DraftKings holds a slight odds edge on this leg of the SGP.

D own the stretch run of the 2022 season, Jerick McKinnon proved to be a reliable red-zone target, so Patrick Mahomes simply kept targeting him. McKinnon finished the regular season on a streak of six consecutive games with at least one receiving touchdown, catching multiple TD passes in a game on multiple occasions over that span.

Though Travis Kelce is going to test his knee before game time to try and give it a go on Thursday night, any compromising risk to his goal-line presence should only mean more of an opportunity for a trusted outlet like McKinnon. Though the Chiefs have other running backs if they're looking to pound it between the tackles, I look for McKinnon to be on the field in red-zone passing situations.

McKinnon's anytime touchdown odds at FanDuel are +175, compared to +185 at DraftKings. At either shop, pairing the game total Under with a touchdown scorer bet fades correlation to boost our SGP od ds.

Lions rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs is expected to be used frequently as a receiver out of the backfield, so we're looking for him to break at least one chunk play through the air on Thursday in order to clear his modest receiving total.

FanDuel offers Gibbs' receiving total at 31.5 yards with -110 odds (pushing the overall parlay odds to +1079), but it also lists an alternate total of 25-plus yards (-188) that gets this overall parlay to +840. That's where we decided to plant our flag for this SGP.

While we're taking the safer route, knowing Gibbs' explosiveness, it makes sense to consider the more daring angles, too. At DraftKings, pairing Over 29.5 yards with our other SGP picks pushes the total parlay odds to +900. 

Lions-Chiefs SGP picks made 09/07/2023 at Noon ET.

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