The 2023 NFL season gets underway with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions, and we have you covered with our best Lions-Chiefs predictions for Thursday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.
Things looked bleak for Detroit after starting 1-6 last season, but the team rebounded to win eight of its final 10 games and was just a Week 18 Los Angeles Rams win away from clinching a playoff berth. The Lions' 8-2 stretch included a 5-0 record in divisional games and helped secure their first winning record in the last five seasons.
Kansas City beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 for its second Super Bowl title in the last four seasons. The Chiefs have now won 10-plus games in eight consecutive seasons, and another AFC West title this year would be eight straight and tie the New England Patriots for the second-most consecutive division titles in NFL history (the NFL record is 11, New England from 2009-19). Kansas City's 64 wins since 2018 are the most in the NFL.
Here is our best Lions vs. Chiefs prediction for Thursday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lions vs. Chiefs prediction
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The last time Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes met head-to-head was also a primetime matchup on Monday Night Football in 2018, and their two teams combined for 105 points (most in MNF history), 14 touchdowns (second-most in NFL history), and Mahomes' six passing touchdowns in a loss were the most in MNF history. While we don't think this year's meeting will be as historic, we do expect a shootout that goes over the projected total.
Detroit and Kansas City each ranked in the top five in yards per game and points per game last season, while its defenses were two of the four worst in interior run stop win rates. The Chiefs, in particular, led the league in points per game (29.2), yards per game (413.6), efficiency (76.4), total QBR (77.4), and pass block win rate (75%). Former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is gone, and in that role since 2018, the Chiefs ranked first in PPG, YPG, QBR, and third-down percentage and top six in points and yards every season. However, we have complete confidence in head coach Andy Reid to keep the offense at an elite level.
The Chiefs defense suffered a massive loss with tackle Chris Jones on the reserve/did not report list. Jones had 15.5 sacks last season, which tied for fourth in the NFL and matched his career high. When Jones has been on the field the previous five seasons, Kansas City has allowed a 52 QBR, generated the highest pressure percentage (35%), and had a 38% third-down percentage. When Jones has been off the field in that span, the team has allowed a 66 QBR, ranks 28th in pressure percentage (27%), and allowed a 48% third-down percentage. The biggest advantage the Chiefs figured to have was against the middle of the Lions offensive line (Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker are elite tackles), but that advantage is mitigated without Jones. Meanwhile, Kansas City had the third-most defensive snaps by rookies last season (2,917), but it's not like those players are seasoned veterans in their second years.
Goff had a top-five total QBR last season (61) and had his second-highest QBR from inside the pocket (69). But Mahomes had an elite efficiency rating of 77, 78 QBR, and a 71% red zone touchdown percentage, and should attack a Lions pass defense that ranked last in QBR (69), 31st in yards per attempt (7.9), 30th in pass yards per game (245.8), and 30th in 20-yards plays allowed (60).
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Lions vs. Chiefs best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 54 | Over 54.5 | Over 54 | Over 54 | Over 54 |
| -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Four of the five major sportsbooks are aligned with the same O/U of 54 at standard -110 juice on either side, while FanDuel is the only sportsbook that differs by a half-point. FanDuel charges -115 odds to back the Under of 54.5, but we need more than the -105 juice to shop there when losing a half-point of value.
Lions vs. Chiefs odds
Lions vs. Chiefs odds analysis
BetMGM was aligned with FanDuel as it opened with a total of 54.5, and it stayed there for more than a week before bettors drove it down to 54. Meanwhile, the odds at Caesars bounced up and down multiple times from 54 to 54.5, which suggests the shop is likely to kick off with one of those numbers being its opening total.
While some shops differ slightly on the total, all are in unison with the Chiefs as -6.5 point fav orites, though FanDuel and BetRivers charge slightly more in juice to lay the points with the favorites at -115 and -112 odds, respectively. Home teams in the Week 1 Thursday night opener are 12-7-3 ATS since 2000.
Kansas City's moneyline odds are as low as -275 at BetMGM and as high as -320 at Caesars.
Lions vs. Chiefs game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 7 at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: 68 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 9-mph ENE
Lions-Chiefs prediction made 9/4/2023 at 8:42 a.m. ET
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