An Eastern Conference showdown between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Pittsburgh Penguins is a marquee matchup, as both teams are loaded with stars and Stanley Cup rings. Here is our top NHL pick for the Lightning-Penguins game based on the best NHL odds.
The Bolts and Pens both head to Pittsburgh following road wins on Saturday. Tampa Bay topped the Detroit Red Wings 3-0, and Pittsburgh beat the St. Louis Blues 3-2 in overtime. Additionally, both clubs are expected to start their No. 2 netminders.
Tampa backup Brian Elliott sports a solid 9-3-2 record, but his .904 save percentage and 2.90 GAA shouldn't instill oodles of confidence. Pittsburgh netminder Casey DeSmith hasn't impressed across a larger sample, either. He's 10-12-4 for the year with .904 and 3.28 marks.
Interestingly, both teams also enter Sunday's tilt with matchi ng 0-4 active records on the second leg of a back-to-back spot.
Here is our best Lightning-Penguins NHL pick (odds via Caesars; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our Norris Trophy odds.
Lightning vs. Penguins pick
The Penguins aren't scoring and sport the third-lowest team shooting percentage at five-on-five through nine games out of the All-Star break. I'm expecting the puck luck to turn in their favor, but the Lightning are a tough opponent for kick-starting statistical correction.
Tampa Bay has surrendered the fifth-fewest five-on-five goals per 60 minutes (2.09) through 35 games since No. 2 center Anthony Cirelli returned to the lineup in early December. He pairs with top pivot Brayden Point to form a one-two punch that can match up well against Pittsburgh's own star duo of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin up the middle.
The Lightning also rank sixth in Corsi For percentage and seventh in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five when adjusted for score and venue during that same stretch. The Pens sport middling rankings of 14th and 15th.
I'm concerned about the dropoff in net from Tampa's No. 1 Andrei Vasilevskiy to backup Elliott. The Bolts are a superior team with Vasilevskiy. However, Pittsburgh isn't receiving NHL-caliber play from DeSmith this season, so the goaltending edge still goes in Tampa's favor.
Finally, I value the depth the Lightning boast considerably more than the supporting cast in Pittsburgh. Tampa Bay also jumped out to a quick lead Saturday, and team was able to balance its ice time fairly evenly. Meanwhile, four Penguins defensemen needed to play over 22 minutes on Saturday, and the game went to overtime against the Blues.
A tired defense corps in front of a shaky goalie against the team scoring the fourth-most goals per game isn't a recipe for success.
Check out our Calder Trophy odds.
Lightning vs. Penguins best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| Lightning ML | Lightning ML | Lightning ML | Lightning ML | Lightning ML |
| -110 | -110 | -105 | -105 | -105 |
There isn't a huge edge in the available odds across our best sportsbooks, and but I'd play the Lightning's moneyline at -110, too. The -105 odds offer a positive expected value of just 2%, after all.
The primary reasons for the two-star nod are the noted improved puck luck ahead for the Penguins, and Elliott starting for the Bolts. I'd grade this as a three-star bet if Vasilevskiy was between the pipes for Tampa.
Check out our latest Stanley Cup odds and Hart Trophy odds.
Lightning vs. Penguins odds
Check out our latest Stanley Cup odds and Hart Trophy odds.
Lightning vs. Penguins odds analysis
The moneyline has experienced minor adjustments at some sportsbooks, and the best number for the Lightning available is -105. Prospective Pittsburgh backers will want to buy the +100 line through DraftKings or BetMGM. Tampa Bay is also receiving 66% of the moneyline action, according to our matchup page.
The total remains at the opening 6.5 number, and there's a slight disparity in odds across our best sportsbooks. BetMGM, Caesars, and PointsBet are showing the lowest vig on the Over at -115, whereas FanDuel offers the best price for the Under (-102).
Puck line bettors can find the best number to back Pi ttsburgh +1.5 (-238) through BetMGM, and PointsBet is hanging the best odds for Tampa Bay -1.5 (+215).
Lightning vs. Penguins game info
Date: Sunday, Feb, 26, 6 p.m. ET
TV: NHL Network
Location: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA
Lightning-Penguins pick made 2/26/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
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