The Tampa Bay Lightning smacked down the Colorado Avalanche in a Stanley Cup rematch last week, and the two teams will face off again Tuesday, this time in Colorado. Read on for our best Lightning-Avalanche NHL pick based on the top odds.
The Lightning are in fine form after a slow start to the season. They sit third in the Atlantic Division with 70 points over 52 games. That's good for a .673 points percentage, which ranks fourth in the league.
Tampa Bay is 14-5-1 since the holiday break, though all five losses have come on the road.
The Avalanche have been struggling more in 2022-23 while enduring a never-ending run of injuries. They're fourth in the Central Division with 60 points over 51 games.
There have been encouraging signs recently, as the Avs appear to be getting healthier. They're 8-2-1 over the past month, with the only regulation losses coming last week at Tampa Bay, and oddly enough, two weeks before that at home against the Anaheim Ducks.
After the results in Tampa Bay last week, Colorado ought to be ready to pl ay on Tuesday.
Here is our best Lightning vs. Avalanche NHL pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NHL best bets for Tuesday.
Lightning vs. Avalanche pick
Victor Hedman has long been a standout defenseman for the Lightning, finishing in the top five of Norris Trophy voting in six straight seasons.
But his reputation can inflate his value in the marketplace, and Hedman endured a November slump that left his production well below expectations.
However, his results have been picking up. Hedman has recorded at least three shots on goal in 11 of 24 road games this season, but he's hit that threshold in five of his past six contests overall.
He faces an Avalanche team that ranks 23rd with 31.8 shots against per 60 minutes. Moreover, injuries are again depleting Colorado's defense. Cale Makar, Josh Manson, and Erik Johnson are all out of the lineup Tuesday. That defensive vulnerability leads to a strong possibility the Over on this prop hits.
Check out our latest Stanley Cup odds.
Avalanche vs. Lightning best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | N/A | -122 ?? |
Among NHL player props, the shot markets tend not to come with such wide variance in pricing, and that largely holds true with Hedman's shot prop against the Avalanche. Three of our top-rated sportsbooks are in agreement, offering Hedman Over 2.5 shots on goal at -110.
PointsBet is charging much more of a premium at -122, but that would still be preferable to the non-existent offering at Caesars.
Avalanche vs. Lightning odds
Check out our complete list of NHL odds!
Avalanche vs. Lightning odds analysis
FanDuel's moneyline opened with the Avalanche favored at -114, compared to the Lightning at -105.
Even with 64% of the early moneyline wagers on the Avalanche, there's been line movement in the other direction. The Lightning are now favored at -125 while the Avalanche's moneyline is at +104.
The total opened at 6 with the Over at -114 and the Under at -106. With 56% of the early action coming in on the Over, the price has nonetheless moved toward a lower-scoring game. The Under is now -120, with the Over at -102.
Check out our Stanley Cup odds!
Avalanche vs. Lightning game info
- Date: Tuesday, Feb. 14, 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+, Sportsnet, TVAS, ALT, BSSUN
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Lightning-Avalanche pick made 2/14/2023 at 1 p.m. ET.
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