After an overtime victory in Monday's Game 4, the Los Angeles Lakers hope to wrap up the opening-round series with a road win over the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 5. Read on for our Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction based on the best NBA odds.
It's elimination time. The Memphis Grizzlies, who are down 3-1, can extend the series by taking care of business at home against the Los Angeles Lakers. Memphis is a 4-point favorite, but will Los Angeles finish the job with another road win?
We believe the Grizzlies will respond, but rather than taking them on the spread, there's a better angle for this game. We're fading Lakers big man Anthony Davis, who has not performed as well in losses this season.
Here is our best Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction
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No player is as important to the Lakers' success as Anthony Davis. Sure, a top-two player (at worst) in the history of the game currently plays for Los Angeles. But LeBron James seemingly always finds a way to produce, as evidenced by his 20-point, 20-rebound performance on an off night last time out.
But Davis has a knack for disappearing at times, particularly in defeats. Davis is averaging 37 total points, rebounds, and assists in losses this year and 35.7 over his last 10, according to props.cash. That number jumps up to 43.5 in wins over the course of the season, including 42.4 in his last 10 victories.
Let's also consider what happened in Game 4. The Lakers arguably should have lost that contest before James came through in the clutch. Davis finished with 12 points, 11 rebounds, and two assists in 42 minutes of action. He recorded 13 points, nine rebounds, and three assists in a Game 2 defeat against the Grizzlies.
I think the Grizzlies are going to win this game, and oddsmakers clearly agree by making them 4-point home favorites. Memphis made some strong adjustments in Game 4, but this team continues to send a help defender at Davis whenever he touches the ball.
NumberFire is on our side for this Under, projecting Davis to finish with 21.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. If you would prefer to avoid the double-digit boards, there are other ways to bet against Davis in this matchup.
But we are backing his PRA line as our four-star pick for this game.
Lakers vs. Grizzlies b est odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 38.5 | Under 39.5 | Under 38.5 | Under 38.5 | Under 39.5 |
| -115 | -120 | -120 | -114 | -115 |
Shopping around at the best sports betting sites is crucial to finding the right number for this prop. This combo line is set as low as 38.5 at three shops, with FanDuel and PointsBet offering some extra wiggle room at 39.5.
We played this at PointsBet, where the -115 price on the Under gives an edge of 20% on this prop. FanDuel's Under provides an edge of 18%, though this is still playable at 38.5 based on projections.
If you're looking for other angles to fade Davis in this spot, his combo prop of points and assists is being offered at 26.5 at PointsBet. AD's scoring prop of 23.5 at FanDuel is also worth a look in a game where he is projected to score about 21 points.
Lakers vs. Grizzlies odds
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Lakers vs. Grizzlies odds analysis
The Grizzlies opened as 3-point favorites, but the market has since pushed that spread out to -4 at our best NBA betting sites. The total has dropped down to 221.5 after starting at 222 when betting lines were released at the best sportsbooks.
Much like the rest of the NBA Playoffs, the winner of the game has covered the spread in all four meetings during this series thus far. The total went Over in Game 1 and Game 4 while finishing Under in Game 2 and Game 3.
Lakers vs. Grizzlies game info
- Date: Wednesday, April 26, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Lakers-Grizzlies pick made 4/26/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
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