The Cleveland Cavaliers are on the brink of elimination in a do-or-die Game 5 at home against the New York Knicks. Can the Cavs keep their playoff hopes alive, or will the Knicks close out this series on the road? Check out our Knicks vs. Cavaliers prediction based on the best NBA odds.
After splitting two games at home, the Cavaliers dropped Games 3 and 4 on the road to fall behind 3-1 to the Knicks in the Eastern Conference first round. Facing elimination, the Cavs will need to secure a victory in front of the home crowd tonight, and doing so will require some significant improvements on offense and more consistent play from the frontcourt.
Can Cleveland win and extend the series, or will New York punch its ticket to the Eastern Conference semifinals?
Here is our best Knicks vs. Cavaliers prediction (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Knicks vs. Cavaliers prediction
This has been an ugly series from top to bottom. Through four games, both teams sport a snail's pace of 90.1. The Cavs are averaging just 94 points per game compared to New York's 98. Every game of the series has hit the Under, and the Knicks have excelled in slowing down Cleveland's dynamic backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland while doing the dirty work in the paint.
New York leads in rebounds per game (44.8 to 39) and steals per game (11 to 7.3), and the Knicks have crushed Cleveland on the offensive glass. The Knicks have pulled down 14.5 offensive rebounds per contest compared to Cleveland's 10.5. One of the Cavs' biggest strengths is their frontcourt pairing of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, but Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson have effectively neutralized the duo thus far.
The Knicks have gotten to the charity stripe 98 times in the series compared to just 78 for Cleveland, speaking to New York's level of aggression on both ends of the court. Julius Randle averaged a career-high 25.1 points per game on 45.9% shooting in the regular season, but he's averaged just 14.8 points on 32.3% shooting in this series. Jalen Brunson has been phenomenal, and RJ Barrett stepped up in Game 4, but the Knicks have another gear on offense when Randle is feeling it. He averaged 26.8 points per game on the road compared to 23.5 at home in the regular season. In addition to those stars, our Jon Metler is also backing Immanuel Quickley to have a solid performance in his NBA best bets.
The Knicks have been one of the best teams against the spread on the road this season, going 27-15-1 away from Madison Square Garden and 18-12-1 as road dogs.
New York has a chance to close out this series on Wednesday, and though Cleveland will surely come out swinging due to desperation, we don't expect the Knicks to lay down here. This should be another close contest, so we're taking New York and the points.
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Knicks vs. Cavaliers best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks +4.5 | Knicks +4.5 | Knicks +4.5 | N/A | Knicks +4.5 |
| +105 | +108 | +105 | N/A | +105 |
This wager isn't available at Caesars, but all of our best sportsbooks offer the Knicks +5.5 for standard -110 odds. New York has been the better team in this series, and this spread is much too large, even though the game is in Cleveland. We can sell a point and get these odds at +105 for Knicks +4.5 at three of our best sports betting sites: DraftKings, BetMGM, and PointsBet. However, FanDuel offers this at +108, which is where we'll make our wager.
Knicks vs. Cavaliers odds
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Knicks vs. Cavaliers odds analysis
The Cavs are just 1-3 in this series straight-up and ATS, which is the same mark Cleveland had against New York in the regular season. The Cavs were listed at -5 in Game 1 and lost before responding with a big Game 2 victory as 6-point favorites. Cleveland was +1.5 and +1 in Games 3 and 4 (both losses), respectively, so the 5.5 points at home are tough to swallow. Bettors like the Knicks to cover, with 55% of action placed on that outcome.
The Cavs and Knicks have averaged 192 points through four games in this series, and the total has crept down in each of the last four from 216 in Game 1 to 214, 211.5, 203.5, and finally 202 in Game 5. These are slow, defensive teams that will continue to play physical basketball and turn down the pace. Even at such a low point total, 57% of bettors favor the Under, which has been the outcome of the previous four.
Knicks vs. Cavaliers game info
Date: Wednesday, April 26, 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBA TV
Location: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH
Knicks-Cavaliers pick made 04/26/2023 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
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