The Golden State Warriors have a chance to wrap up their opening-round series by winning Game 6 at home against the Sacramento Kings. Read on for our Kings vs. Warriors prediction based on the best NBA odds.
After facing an early 0-2 hole, the Warriors have now won three consecutive games and are on the verge of eliminating the Kings. The defending champs just need to take care of business at home, where they went 35-8 this year.
The Warriors are considered sizable favorites, but can the young Kings pull off an upset to force a Game 7? We have our doubts, but we are confident in a Stephen Curry prop that has been money all series.
Here is our best Kings vs. Warriors prediction (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Kings vs. Warriors prediction
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Game 6 isn't really about whether the Warriors can wrap up this opening-round series. It is about whether or not I can ultimately come out ahead by betting on this particular prop for Stephen Curry. I cashed one Under ticket in my Game 3 preview before coming up short with an Over wager last time out.
In the rubber match, I'm sticking with my guns and going back to the Under here. Curry has yet to clear this mark at any point this series, finishing with double-digit combined rebounds and assists just once in five games. And that was last time out when Curry finished with a series-high eight dimes.
According to prop.cash, Curry has finished Over this mark just twice in his last 10 games. That might help explain why props.cash has a projection of 10.14 rebounds and assists for Curry, which is lower than other projections like NumberFire.
In this series, the Warriors are averaging 45.6 rebounds and 28.8 assists per game. Curry is averaging just 4.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists during this round, while the likes of Kevon Looney and Draymond Green have shouldered more of the load in those categories to allow Curry to focus on scoring.
In a Game 6 that the Warriors should win, I would be surprised if Curry makes a concerted effort to crash the glass. We are comfortable betting on this Under as a four-star pick, at least until proven otherwise.
Kings vs. Warriors best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 rebounds + assists | Under 11.5 rebounds + assists | Under 11.5 rebounds + assists | Under 11.5 rebounds + assists | Under 11.5 rebounds + assists |
| -115 | -130 | -110 | -117 | -125 |
The pricing on this prop at the best sports betting sites is truly interesting. BetMGM offers the best odds on the Under, which is why we are placing this bet there and would recommend doing so at anything -120 or better.
FanDuel has the worst price on the Under, which makes sense because the Over is being offered at plus-money. I was tempted by that plus-sign in Game 5, but I won't be making the same mistake two games in a row.
Kings vs. Warriors odds
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Kings vs. Warriors odds analysis
The Warriors opened as 6.5-point favorites, but the spread has since moved to -7.5 at our best NBA betting sites. The total is sitting at 234.5 after opening at 235 at the best sportsbooks when lines were first released.
So far in this series, the winner of the game is 4-1 against the spread through the first five outings. The Kings covered as 7-point underdogs in a road loss to the Warriors in Game 4. The total is 3-2 to the Over, clearing the number in back-to-back outings.
Kings vs. Warriors game info
- Date: Friday, April 28, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Kings-Warriors pick made 04/28/2023 at 11:40 a.m. ET.
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