March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Kent State vs. Indiana
| Player | PTs | REBs | ASTs | PTs + REBs | PTs + ASTs | PRAs | 3Ps | FTs |
| Sincere Carry | 16.1 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 20.1 | 20.3 | 24.3 | 1.9 | 3.4 |
| Malique Jacobs | 12.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 18.2 | 15.6 | 21.4 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| Miryne Thomas | 11.2 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 18.0 | 12.0 | 18.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Jalen Sullinger | 10.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Voncameron Davis | 4.8 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Chris Payton | 6.9 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| Cli’Ron Hornbeak | 5.4 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Giovanni Santiago | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Delrecco Gillespie | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Julius Rollins | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Akeem Odusipe | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Player | PTs | REBs | ASTs | PTs + REBs | PTs + ASTs | PRAs | 3Ps | FTs |
| Trayce Jackson-Davis | 21.8 | 12.8 | 4.1 | 34.6 | 25.8 | 38.7 | 0.0 | 5.8 |
| Jalen Hood-Schifino | 15.1 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 20.2 | 19.0 | 24.1 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Miller Kopp | 8.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Race Thompson | 8.0 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 14.6 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Tamar Bates | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Malik Reneau | 6.2 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| Trey Galloway | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Jordan Geronimo | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Xavier Johnson | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kaleb Banks | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CJ Gunn | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Logan Duncomb | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Anthony Leal | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Shaan Burke | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Nathan Childress | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Hogan Orbaugh | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Michael Shipp | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |