I have spent a LOT of time thinking about the Heisman Trophy since the markets opened this offseason and have opinions on just about every possible candidate you can think of. I've generally been low on the chances Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson wins the award this year, but two different very smart bettors, The Tailgate Tent in an episode of The Deep Dive and Locky Lockerson on his daily show, stumped for Henderson. I don't have too much pride to ignore smart people I don't agree with so I bet a little on Henderson at 40-1 to win the covete d award.
My thoughts on Henderson are part of a broader thought that I haven't been able to get out of my head for a while now: is the era of Heisman Trophy winning running backs over forever and what would it take for a running back to win the award in today's college football?
The Heisman Used To Be a Running Back Award
Running backs used to dominate the Heisman Trophy, with a back winning it 17 times from 1976 to 1999. The numbers dipped in the 90s, but four running backs won it that decade. Only three running backs have won the award since: Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry. Since Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey finished first and second in the voting in 2015, the only running back to finish higher than fifth in the voting was Bryce Love who finished second in 2017. That year Love ran for 1,973 yards in the regular season, but he finished a distant second in Heisman voting to Baker Mayfield who received 732 first-place votes, while Love received just 75.
Over the past 10 seasons, the only running backs to finish in the top three in Heisman voting went to either Alabama, Stanford or Wisconsin. Alabama didn't run an aggressive, pass-oriented offense until 2018. It seems like hell will freeze over before Stanford and Wisconsin join them in doing so. The running back with the most votes in 2021 was Michigan State's Kenneth Walker. Walker had a phenomenal year last year rushing for 1,636 yards and 18 touchdowns for a surprising Spartans team that went 10-2. Walker was actually the betting favorite for a couple of weeks, but the Spartans lost to Purdue and then two weeks later got wiped off the face of the earth by Ohio State and Walker ended up finishing sixth in the Heisman voting.'