We examine whether Luka Doncic can guide the Dallas Mavericks to a much-needed win or if the Miami Heat will nab a third straight victory as we make our Heat vs. Mavericks NBA player props based on the best NBA odds.
The Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat come into Thursday's matchup with completely different trajectories over the last month. The Heat are 8-2 over their last 10 and enter on a two-game win streak. On the other hand, the Mavericks are 5-5 over their last 10 with a three-game losing streak.
Miami has climbed out of the Play-In Tournament in the East and sits as the No. 6 seed. Meanwhile, Dallas is the No. 8 seed out West in a tightly bunched field, vying for the best spot possible in the postseason. Every win counts for the home stretch, and with fewer than 20 games left on the schedule, the Mavericks need to get back on track at home on Thursday.
Will they do it, or will the Heat extend their win streak? Is Luka Doncic's ridiculous heater sustainable for at least one more contest, and can Miami's primary scorers take advantage of a struggling Dallas defense?
Here are our best Heat vs. Mavericks NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Heat vs. Mavericks NBA player props: Thursday
- Bam Adebayo Over 31.5 points + rebounds (-104 via FanDuel) ????
- Luka Doncic triple-double (+210 via bet365) ???
- Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 3-pointers (+118 via FanDuel) ????
- Jimmy Butler Over 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 via bet365) ????
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Heat vs. Mavericks props
Dallas' defense has been vulnerable all season, but it's been particularly poor over the last three games. On the season, Dallas allows the second most rebounds per game (54.2). The Mavs also allow the seventh most points (118.3), but they've surrendered the most over their last three at a whopping 131.7. That includes 54.7 points in the paint (fifth most), up from the 52.6 paint points surrendered on the season overall (ninth most).
Adebayo has averaged 29.4 points + rebounds at home compared to 31.9 on the road, so he's got an advantage playing in Dallas tonight. His points + rebounds + assists prop is set at 34.5 across our featured books, but we're leaving assists out of the equation on Thursday. Since the All-Star break, Adebayo has averaged just 2.8 assists, down 50% from the 4.2 he averaged before the break. His odds on this prop are highly favorable at FanDuel, as they're set at -115 or shorter across our other featured books.
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Doncic has posted a triple-double in four straight contests, and we're banking on him extending that streak. Over his last 14 games, Doncic has averaged a ridiculous 34.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 10.4 assists, with five triple-doubles under his belt. He's come within one point or rebound of a triple-double in four more and within three points/rebounds in three. That means over his last 14, Doncic has either triple-doubled or come within three or fewer points/rebounds 12 times.
Doncic is third in the NBA in triple-doubles this season with 14, and eight of those have come at home. Miami's defense presents a challenge, so we're not targeting Doncic's PRAs prop, which is reasonably set at 53.5 across our featured books. Instead, we'll bet on him reaching double digits in points, rebounds, and assists and paying off these plus-money odds. Considering his current heater, we're thrilled to take this at +210 by using our bet365 bonus code: SBRBONUS.
Remember Dallas' vulnerable defense mentioned above? It hasn't been great against opposing 3-point shooters, either. The Mavs have allowed the ninth most 3-pointers this season (13.4), and over their last three games, they're tied for the most allowed at 16.7. That includes 18 triples given up to the Indiana Pacers in their previous outing.
Dallas allows the 14th-highest 3-point percentage on the season at 37.1%, but they've allowed the second-highest 3-point percentage at 42% over the last three. Tyler Herro remains out for this one, and Robinson has hit at least four triples in 11 of 22 matchups with Herro on the sidelines.
Over his last eight games overall, Robinson has averaged 3.5 triples and hit this mark in five of them. He's expected to remain in the starting lineup, which is great for this prop. In 24 starts, Robinson has hit at least four threes 13 times and averaged 3.4 per game. The +118 odds over at FanDuel imply a probability of just 45.8%, but Robinson has hit the Over in 50% of his games without Herro, so we can feel great about taking it here.
Is Butler gearing up for the annual appearance of “Playoff Jimmy?” It certainly looks that way, as Butler has averaged 37.9 PRAs across his last 12 contests and hit the Over in nine of them. He's also been branching out, and we recently saw more of “Emo Jimmy.” Butler parlayed his infamous media day haircut into a starring role in Fall Out Boy& #39;s latest music video. Since that video dropped, he's averaged 28 points, 5.3 assists, and six rebounds in three contests and hit the Over in two straight.
In addition to the generous points and rebounds allowed, Dallas also allows the eighth most assists to opponents this season (28) and the most over their last three (31). We can get this prop at 34.5 for slightly shorter odds across our other featured books, but Butler has been on a roll as of late, and Dallas' defense has been horrendous. We'll take the extra PRA for longer odds without sweating.
Heat-Mavericks NBA player props made Thursday at 6:30 a.m. ET.
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