The Boston Celtics are one step closer to accomplishing NBA history, but they still need to win Thursday's Game 5 against the Miami Heat to keep their championship aspirations alive. Read on for our Heat vs. Celtics prediction based on the best NBA odds.
The Celtics saved us from an entire week without NBA action ahead of the NBA Finals by winning Tuesday's Game 4 against the Heat. The Celtics are now down 3-1 but will be betting favorites for the remainder of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Can Boston accomplish history by becoming the first team to erase a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs? Will Miami close the door with a road victory after winning the first two games of the series inside TD Garden?
Here is our best Heat vs. Celtics prediction (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Heat vs. Celtics prediction
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Betting against Jimmy Butler in the NBA playoffs is not for the faint of heart, especially when he needs just one 3-pointer to spoil this plus-money wager. But the price is too enticing for a player who typically doesn't live beyond the arc.
Butler has made at least one 3-pointer in seven of his 16 games during this postseason run for a hit rate of 44%, which doesn't really explain why our best sports betting apps are offering his Over around -175. The market seems to think Butler has an implied probability of about 64% of hitting at least one triple in Game 5.
In this year's playoff run, Butler has hit a total of 16 3-pointers on 46 att empts, but 12 of those makes and 27 of those attempts came during the opening-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks. Since then, Butler has cleared this 3-point prop line in only three of his last nine games.
During the Eastern Conference Finals, Butler is averaging just 2.5 attempts per game and has connected on three long balls. He fired just one shot from beyond the arc in both Game 2 and Game 3, missing both such attempts.
For the season, Butler averaged just 1.6 3-point attempts per game and cleared this mark in 43% of his games. He simply isn't someone who wants to take a lot of shots from long range, which really makes this juicy price so attractive, especially given the context.
The Celtics know they need to limit Butler to win Game 5 and push this series back to Miami. Butler knows he needs to create efficient shots for his team in a hostile environment. At a price of +140 , I'm willing to take the chance that a 3-pointer doesn't go down for Butler on Thursday.
Heat vs. Celtics best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 3PM | Under 0.5 3PM | Under 0.5 3PM | Under 0.5 3PM | Under 0.5 3PM |
| +140 | +134 | +135 | +133 | N/A |
All the best sports betting sites have set this line at 0.5, with the Over juiced from -175 to -185. This allows us to take advantage of a juicy number on the Under, especially at DraftKings where we are getting a +140 value on a prop we would play at +130 or better.
Heat vs. Celtics odds
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
Heat vs. Celtics odds analysis
Despite the 3-1 series deficit, the Celtics opened as 7.5-point favorites and are now laying -8 at our best NBA betting sites. The total has climbed up to 215.5 after opening at 215 across our best sportsbooks.
Heat vs. Celtics game info
- Date: Thursday, May 25, 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Heat-Celtics pick made 05/24/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
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