The Milwaukee Bucks try to get back on track at home with a healthy team, while the Miami Heat will look to ride Jimmy Butler's hot hand to an improbable first-round upset. Read on for our Heat vs. Bucks prediction based on the best NBA odds.
As the No. 8 seed, the Miami Heat were big underdogs against the Milwaukee Bucks, but a Game 1 injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo drastically shifted the direction of this first-round series.
Antetokounmpo missed Games 2 and 3, which the teams split. He went for a triple-double in his Game 5 return, but Butler put the Heat on his back to help deliver a come-from-behind victory and 3-1 series lead.
With Antetokounmpo healthy at home, can Milwaukee keep its championship aspirations alive?
Here is our best Heat vs. Bucks prediction (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Heat vs. Bucks prediction
Down 11 points heading into the fourth quarter, the Heat completed an epic comeback to take a 3-1 series lead Monday. Butler scored 21 points over the final eight minutes of the game and finished with a Heat playoff record 56 points. Though Jon Metler believes Butler will go Under an even lower point total in his NBA best bets, I believe he'll score at least 30.
Through four games, Jimmy Buckets has averaged 36.5 points, with 30 points in each of his last two games. Going back to the regular season, he's scored at least 30 points in four of five contests. Counting the regular season and playoffs, Butler has averaged 29.3 points across eight games against Milwaukee, including 28.8 points per game at Fiserv Forum. If you exclude Butler's 56-point performance and his 16-point effort on Jan. 14, he's averaged 27 against the Bucks.
Butler's hot streak isn't just a recent trend, either. He scored 22.9 points per game in the regular season overall (second-most of his career) and upped it to 25.6 per game in 22 contests post-All-Star break with six 30-point performances.
The Bucks' defense isn't a unit to fear right now. Since March 1, the Bucks allowed 119.7 points per game (sixth-most) overall and 118 points per game at home (eighth-most). The Heat are huge underdogs on the road, and the Bucks should come out playing with a level of urgency and desperation, leading to a close contest.
Expect Butler – who leads the NBA in 40-point playoff games over the last two seasons with five – to shoulder the offense yet again in a closeout contest. In two closeout games in 2022, he scored 35 against Boston and 32 against Philly, and he'll add another 30-pointer Wednesday.
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Heat vs. Bucks best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butler Over 29.5 Points | Butler Over 29.5 Points | Butler Over 29.5 Points | Butler Over 29.5 Points | Butler Over 29.5 Points |
| -110 | -118 | -110 | -106 | -115 |
The odds vary among our best sportsbooks, with FanDuel and PointsBet offering this prop with shorter odds than the standard -110. BetMGM and DraftKings offer it at -110, but we can get the longest odds at Caesars without having to sell any points.
Heat vs. Bucks odds
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Heat vs. Bucks odds analysis
Despite losing each of the last two games and three of four in this series, the Bucks are heavy favorites at home, and the opening 11.5-point spread hasn't moved. Bettors are eying the Heat to cover, with 66% of wagers placed on that outcome. Milwaukee was 5-10 ATS when favored by double-digit points in the regular season, while Miami was 5-2 ATS when underdogs by seven or more points.
The point total opened at 219.5, and it has moved up a point ahead of tip-off. Bettors have wagered 66% of tickets on the Over. Miami has hit the Over in each of its last four, and Milwaukee has hit the Over in each of its last six. Neither defense has been particularly effective as of late, and the teams have combined to score 237.5 points per game in this series.
Heat vs. Bucks game info
Date: Wednesday, April 26, 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBA TV
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Heat-Bucks pick made 04/26/2023 at 1:05 p.m. ET.
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