Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for Friday night's game due to a wrist injury. Can the Milwaukee Bucks still beat the Miami Heat? Read on for our Heat-Bucks NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.
The Bucks were red-hot heading into the All-Star break. They won 12 consecutive games and 14 of 15 overall. Giannis at least appeared in all of those games, so can the Bucks defeat a team above .500 without him?
Meanwhile, the Heat lost their final two contests before the break. They currently own the seventh-best record in the Eastern Conference, and they're 2-1 against the Bucks in 2022. However, while all of the attention is going to be on the absence of Giannis, the Heat will be without a few key players as too. That includes Kyle Lowry, who's averaging 12 points per game.
Here is our best Heat-Bucks NBA pick (odds via DraftKin gs Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Heat vs. Bucks pick
The Bucks are 0-2 against the Heat in games without Giannis. However, both of those outings were also played in Miami. Antetokounmpo played when these two teams met in Milwaukee earlier in February, and the Bucks won 123-115.
Lowry didn't play in that game and he'll sit again on Friday, which could put the Heat at an offensive disadvantage. While Giannis is certainly a bigger loss for his team than Lowry, the Bucks boast enough talent to win a home game against the Heat without him.
Therefore, we're avoiding the potential trap of taking the Heat's moneyline, and let's instead play the Under. The Bucks scored a combined 197 points against Miami over those two con tests without Giannis. The Heat's offense wasn't much better while scoring just 219 points. The highest combined total of the two games was 210.
Without Giannis, the Bucks are leaving 31.8 points on the bench, while Lowry's absence leaves the Heat without their assists leader. That's going to seriously limit both offenses, and it would be surprising if either unit scores more than 115 points. This total isn't very high, but it's still higher than it should be given who's sitting out.
Heat vs. Bucks best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| Under 219 | Under 218 | N/A | Under 218 | Under 218.5 |
| -110 | -110 | N/A | -110 | -110 |
Pounce on the offering at DraftKings as soon as possible, because the number at that book is going to drop. The other major sportsbooks are already showing either 218 or 218.5, and none are offering a better price than DraftKings.
With Giannis' absence, even a number like 218 is probably too high for a lot of people. The line could drop all the way to 216, and I'd still take the Under. But a safety net is always nice.
Don't wait for a line to appear at BetMGM, as it's almost certain to be lower than what's currently being offered elsewhere. Find the highest number you can and take it. Right now, that's at DraftKings.
Heat vs. Bucks odds
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Heat vs. Bucks odds analys is
The Bucks opened as 1.5-point favorites and the line hasn't moved at all, even after they've been receiving 74% of the action. While the initial wagers are on the Bucks, a lot of those bets could have come in before it was known Giannis is likely to be out. Don't expect this line to move past a basket. If anything, it should start to shift in favor of the Heat once the percentage of wagers starts to level out.
This total opened at 219, and it's dropped at all of the major sportsbooks except for DraftKings. That's happened despite 52% of wagers coming in on the Over. With Oddsmakers currently ignoring the wagers coming from the public, expect the total to continue to fall even if bettors keeping backing the Over.
Heat vs. Bucks game info
- Date: Friday, Feb. 24, 7:30 p.m.
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Fiserv Forum, Milw aukee, WI
Heat-Bucks pick made 2/24/2023 at 8:10 a.m. ET.
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