Grambling and Montana State square off in Wednesday's first play-in game, and we have you covered with our top Grambling vs. Montana State prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
The No. 16 seed Grambling Tigers (20-14, 14-4 SWAC) avenged losses to Texas Southern in consecutive seasons in the SWAC Tournament by beating the Tigers in the conference final to earn their first-ever NCAA Tournament berth.
The Montana State Bobcats, also a No. 16 seed, were 13-17 entering the regular season finale. Then, they rattled off four straight wins, including three straight in the Big Sky Conference Tournament, to earn their third straight NCAA Tournament berth. The Bobcats are 0-5 all-time in March Madness games.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Grambling vs. Montana State prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness bettin g sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Grambling vs. Montana State odds
Grambling (16) vs. Montana State (16) prediction: Midwest Region
Best odds: -113 via BetRivers
Montana State is in the NCAA Tournament under first-year head coach Matt Logie after getting scalding hot from 3-point range in March. The Bobcats shot 48.1%, 48.1%, and 40.7% from beyond the arc leading up to the Big Sky Conference Tournament final and overcame a 26.1% shooting effort from the perimeter to beat rival Montana for the third time this season in the championship game. However, Grambling State is ripe for its first-ever NCAA Tournament victory, mainly because it defends the 3-point line, allowing the second-lowest 3-point percentage (30.0%) in SWAC play.
Montana State has a huge weakness inside. It entered its conference final, ranked in the seventh percentile in defensive rim efficiency, per Synergy. In addition, because it regularly bombs away from 3-point range, it is not the most sound team analytically. ShotQuality pegged all of its games in March leading up to the final as losses when it really went 3-1 SU in the four games.
Grambling State may not share the basketball as well as most teams (it ranked last in league play in assists per field goals made), but it uses the isolation game as well as anyone and attacks the rim with reckless abandon. The Tigers rank in the bottom 30 in Division I in 3-point attempt rate and get 53% of their points (106th in the country) from inside the arc. Their relentless attack of the rim will put pressure on Montana State's weakest link defensively, and they should force enough turnovers (the Tigers rank in the top 60 nationally in forced turnover rate) to lead to a cover or outright win.
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Grambling vs. Montana State best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | BetRivers | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +4.5 | +4 |
| -110 | -105 | -105 | -113 | -110 |
We would play Grambling down to +4, but we cannot pass up the value of the extra half-point that BetRivers offers, which has us foregoing the point spread at the top sports betting sites. The -113 odds at BetRivers for the +4.5 point spread would pay $18.85 on a $10 wager. So while the -105 odds at FanDuel and BetMGM may be more enticing paying out $19.52 for a winning wager, we find value in getting one extra point on the spread for not much lower of a payout.
We are grabbing any 4.5s we can in case the spread moved in Grambling's favor, as it is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games, while Montana State went a poor 2-8 ATS in 10 non-conference games.
Grambling vs. Montana State spread & Over/Under analysis
FanDuel and BetMGM were the only two of our top sports betting sites that offered a line as high as Montana State -5.5. However, that line did not last long before those two s hops aligned more with our other best sportsbooks. The spread at BetRivers moved in the opposite direction from an opening number of -3.
There is a one-point range on the O/U among our best sports betting sites, as BetMGM is on the low end at 133.5, while FanDuel is the only shop as high as 134.5. As of Sunday night, the only reported line movement was at FanDuel, which lowered from an opening number of 135.5 to 134.5. The Over cashed in 15 of Grambling's 31 games this season, while Montana State had an O/U record of 17-14.
Grambling vs. Montana State game info
- When: Wednesday, March 20
- Tip-off: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio
- How to watch: truTV
Grambling-Montana State prediction made Monday at 5:48 a.m. ET.
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