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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, August 10
Nationals at Phillies Prediction
NATIONALS (+210) at PHILLIES (-260), 6:40 p.m. ET, Total: 9
Philadelphia is slowly pulling away as they look to overcome another slow start and reach the postseason. Following Michael Lorenzen's no-hitter of the Nationals on Wednesday in a 7-0 victory, the Phillies have moved into the NL's top Wild Card spot, holding a slim lead on San Francisco and the rest of a large pack chasing the final berth with less than 50 games to go. The reigning NL champs are looking for their third straight series win and aim to ride Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.58 ERA) to avoid a split against Washington. Nola, formerly Philly's ace, can no longer be considered that given how shaky he's been of late. Nola has given up at least four runs in eight of 13 starts and has dropped his last two outings to the Pirates and Royals, surrendering 10 earned runs over 10 innings. He can occasionally still be lights out, but beating even bad teams like the Nats is no sure thing, which makes laying this much juice backing a Phillies win a bad bet even against a team tha t just got no-hit. This is Nola's first start against Washington this season. He went 1-1 over four starts against them in '22, finishing with a 1.52 ERA over 23.2 innings. Current Nats hitters are 16-for-66 (.242) against Nola, with Dominic Smith and Lane Thomas doing the bulk of the damage (12-for-48, 2 HRs, 7 doubles).
Fading Nats lefty Patrick Corbin (7-11, 5.03) has become a go-to in the handicapping since 2020, as he's gone 24-53 over the past four seasons. Corbin had a 5.83 July ERA but ended up going 2-2 and he comes off a quality start on Aug. 4 at Cincinnati, giving up three runs, all on solo homers, over 6.1 innings. Although he still regularly gets hit hard and has lost double-digit games again, he's no longer an automatic fade. In fact, Washington is 8-7 over Corbin's last 15 starts. This is his first outing against the Phillies in 2023, but they terrorized him last season, going 4-0 and scoring 27 runs (20 earned) over 15.1 innings and batting .443 against Corbin. Current Philadelphia hitters have gone 44-for-128 (.344) against him with six home runs. Bryson Stott (.571), Kyle Schwarber (.357, 2 HR), Alec Bohm (.350, 2 HR) and and J.T. Realmuto (.344, 2 HR) have all excelled against Corbin.
THE PLAY – Phillies Player Prop Pick
Bohm has hit safely in 14 of 16 contests, scoring 12 runs in that span, homering three times and driving in 13. He's got 23 hits in 62 at-bats in that span (.371). Ride Philly's Alec Bohm to top his runs + hits + RBI prop.
Cardinals at Rays Prediction
CARDINALS (+150) at RAYS (-180), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 9
The Rays couldn't win a bullpen game over St. Louis on Wednesday, which may be foreshadowing that they may not be able to survive all the bad luck they've had with their pitchers being injured, especially if Tyler Glasnow's back issues. Ace Shane McClanahan sounds done for the season, Jeffrey Springs was lost to Tommy John surgery, and Drew Rasmussen is done with an elbow issue. Young Shane Baz won't appear in 2023, so manager Kevin Cash will have to piece things together. Zack Littell (2-2, 4.04) will be a key part of that and has won his last two starts after serving exclusively as a reliever or opener since being picked up on waivers in May. He's given up two runs over 11 innings in wins in Houston and Detroit. Littell will make just his second home start this season and just the 10th start of his six-year career that spans stops in Minnesota, San Francisco, Boston and now Tampa Bay. Current Cardinals are 12-for-30 against Littell, with Paul Goldschmidt an i mpressive 5-for-6. Nolan Arenado, Carlson and Goldschmidt have all homered against Littell.
St. Louis, stuck playing spoiler the rest of this season, can do so effectively because they didn't really have much of a fire sale at the trade deadline. The Cardinals are plenty capable of taking this series and hope young lefty Matthew Liberatore (1-4, 6.93) can start living up to billing as the top prospect he was expected to be. Tampa Bay drafted him 16th in the 2018 Draft and moved him in the Randy Arozarena deal back in 2020. Liberatore has largely struggled over the two seasons the Cards have given him a shot to be in the rotation. Prior to being brought back up in August, he couldn't get out of the first inning. Liberatore has one quality start over the 16 he's made so far, and gave up five runs over 5.2 frames against the Twins last Thursday. Expect him to get a long leash with the season looking lost since St. Louis is bringing up the rear in the NL Central, but you have to wonder where his confidence level is considering he gave up multiple homers for just the second time in the bigs in the Aug. 3 5-3 loss to Minnesota. No Rays have ever faced their former farmhand.
THE PLAY – Cardinals Strikeout Prop Pick '
Liberatore is facing a Rays squad that struck out eight times on Wednesday, and he does have a revenge angle in play in facing the team that drafted him, but he's had a tough time missing bats so far in his career. He's had more than three K's in five of his 16 starts, so he'll have to overachieve to top this prop. Ride the under on Cardinals' pitcher Matthew Liberatore's strikeout prop..
Royals at Red Sox Prediction
ROYALS (+215) at RED SOX (-265), 7:10 p.m. ET, Total: 8
Boston has yet to win back-to-back games in August, so that's the task facing the Wild Card hopeful as it enters this game as a heavy favorite. The Red Sox are 3-8 in over their last 11 following Wednesday's 4-3 victory over the Royals, which was notched with a little drama as Kenley Jansen blew the run line victory in the ninth by surrendering a home run. Lefty James Paxton (6-3, 3.60) has been sharp for most of the season but has struggled in two of his last four outings, suffering losses to the Cubs and Blue Jays. He gave up a season-high three homers in a 7-3 loss to Toronto, the most he's surrendered in a single game since 2019. Only two current Royals have ever faced Paxton, Salvador Perez (4-for-13, 1 double) and Matt Duffy (1-for-3, double), so the Sox lefty should have an early edge against most who have never faced him.
Rookie Alec Marsh (0-5, 6.75) debuted on June 30 and has just one quality start to his credit among the six he's made so far in his young career. He struck out 11 Rays on July 15, allowing two runs over six innings. The rest of his outings haven't been as sharp, and he's given up at least one home run in each of his starts, none of which Kansas City has managed to win. A former second-round pick who excelled at Arizona State, Marsh will work the bulk of the innings behind opener Austin Cox (0-1, 3.58), a rookie lefty who has primarily come out of the bullpen but has started two games, neither of which went particularly well. Neither Marsh nor Cox have faced any current Red Sox hitters.