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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 1
Rays at Yankees Prediction
RAYS (-110) at YANKEES (-110), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5
New York was expected to start Domingo German on Monday, scratched him due to armpit discomfort, and then proceeded to bring him in out of the bullpen to pitch five scoreless innings after they had already fallen behind 5-1 thanks to rookie spot starter Jhony Brito's struggles. Things are a mess in the Bronx, and GM Brian Cashman said getting Aaron Judge, Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Loaisiga is the equivalent of a trade deadline haul, which means a big splash isn't likely. Starting August in last place isn't what anyone expected, but there's still time to turn things around with a big next two months required. Carlos Rodon (1-3, 5.75 ERA) finally picked up his first win last time out, allowing a single run in beating the Mets to split this season's Subway Series. The Yankees' top offseason acquisition hasn't delivered many returns, but if his team is going to do anything of substance in his first season, he's going to have to thrive going forward. R odon has a 2.45 ERA over 11 innings at home thus far and has held current Rays to a 4-for-17 showing at the plate, so there's some hope he'll be able to pitch well enough to help even his series.
Tampa Bay made a splash by adding another starter in adding Aaron Civale from Cleveland, allowing it to send down ineffective rookie Taj Bradley. The hope is that Civale will hit the ground running as well as Tuesday night's starter has, since Zach Eflin (11-6, 3.64) leads the Rays in wins after signing with the team in free agency. However, he's just 3-5 since moving to 8-1 on June 12, and the Central Florida native had a 4.85 ERA in July, alternating wins and losses in going 2-3. Eflin got rocked by the Marlins last Wednesday, but is 1-0 against the Yankees this season. Current active New York hitters are batting just .196 against Eflin, and although Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton have each homered, they're a combined 5-for-26. Gleyber Torres is 0-for-5 and Aaron Judge is 0-for-3. Eflin's splits have been far better at home (10-2, 2.60) than on the road (1-4, 5.36), and the Rays have dropped two of his last three road starts. Tampa Bay does own a 5-3 edge o n the Yankees in the season series.
THE PLAY – Rays at Yankees Full Game Bet
Eflin has come back down to earth and will be pitching in the Bronx for the second time. Rodon has settled in some and will have the Yankees' bullpen at full strength behind him since Brito and German handled Monday night's entire load, so the team's pitching situation is in great shape. At a pick'em price, ride the New York Yankees on the full-game money line.
Brewers at Nationals Prediction
BREWERS (-150) at NATIONALS (+130), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5
The Nationals added to Milwaukee's struggles on Monday, pulling off a 5-3 upset by jumping on reliever Elvis Peguero as soon as they were able to get ace Corbin Burnes out of the game. On the same day Washington traded talented 3B Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs, it handled business at home, where it is now 8-1 in its last nine in D.C. The Brewers will look to snap a four-game losing streak behind Freddy Peralta (6-8, 4.46), who struck out 13 batters last time out against the Reds and has surrendered three or fewer runs in eight of his last 10 starts. He's struck out at least eight batters in half of those outings but faces the team that strikes out the fewest in the NL in the Nats. Lane Thomas is 2-for-2 against Peralta, but other Washington hitters he's faced are just 1-for-12 against the Dominican righty.
All-Star Josiah Gray (7-8, 3.27) will look to even his record and extend Washington's recent run of success at home going against the only NL team he's yet to face in his three-year career. Although he's never faced Milwaukee, the four hitters he's faced, Carlos Santana, Raimel Tapia, Abraham Toro and the newly acquired Mark Canha are 3-for-13 against Gray. Canha, who may or may not debut after being acquired from the Mets on Monday, is 3-for-5. The other hitters are a combined 0-for-8. Gray has strangely been much better on the road (4-4, 2.52) than at home (3-4, 4.57), but has surrendered one or fewer earned runs in four of his last six outings, winning 10-1 over the Giants the last time he took the mound at Nationals Park.
THE PLAY – Brewers at Nationals F5 Total Bet
Peralta has really found a groove and should be able to pitch well even if his strikeouts are down due to Washington's ability to make contact. Milwaukee would have at least five more wins if its poor offense hadn't been a season-long albatross, which is why they've been so active adding bats. Gray has an edge with most Brewers seeing him for the first time, so back the first-five under and look for these teams to hang mostly zeroes until the sixth.
White Sox at Rangers Prediction
WHITE SOX (+195) at RANGERS (-240), 8:05 p.m. ET, Total: 9
Chicago's fire sale started earlier than most, and has featured the departure of starters Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn. Reliever Jesse Scholtens (1-3, 3.32) may end up taking the rotation spot for the foreseeable future or could just emerge as an opener, but he'll make his third start against Texas team he worked two-thirds of an inning against on June 19. He's working a few days after recording a hold in a win over Cleveland on Saturday and retired Mitch Garver and Leody Taveras in that previous outing. Tanner Banks could also eat some innings, but there's no question the White Sox are rightfully heavy underdogs in what looks to be a bullpen game for a team that's thrown in the towel and looking to 2024.
The Rangers acquired Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery to fill out their rotation, which also includes Jon Gray and Martin Perez. That leaves Tuesday's starter, Andrew Heaney (7-6, 4.62) as one of the top No. 5 guys in MLB, but the lefty had a 5.87 ERA in June and a 5.40 ERA in July, which means there's pressure on him to perform since Dane Dunning has performed well all season and is waiting in the wings to reclaim a starting spot should Heaney continue to struggle. Ironically, Heaney beat the White Sox in that June 19 game Scholtens appeared in, pitching 5.2 innings of two-run ball in a 5-2 win, striking out six and walking none. That's the type of outing Texas is hoping to see tonight.
THE PLAY – White Sox at Rangers Total Play
Heaney has struggled too much lately to trust here given this much juice, but the White Sox look like they have an untenable situation on the mound post-trade deadline. A Texas offense that has excelled all season should be able to take advantage. Ride the full-game over on nine runs.