Florida State and North Carolina meet for the third time this season in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, and we offer our best Florida State vs. North Carolina prediction based on the best college basketball odds.
No. 9 seed Florida State (17-15, 10-10 ACC) won a game in the ACC Tournament for the first time since 2021, snapping a two-year first-round losing skid with an 86-76 victory over Virginia Tech.
No. 1 seed, and ACC Tournament odds favorite, North Carolina (25-6, 17-3 ACC) is coming off its first outright ACC regular season title since 2017. It didn't clinch until it beat Duke 84-79 in the regular-season finale. The Tar Heels seek to win just their second ACC Tournament since 2008 and first since 2016.
North Carolina won both regular-season meetings between these teams, prevailing at home 78-70 on Dec. 2, and 75-68 in Tallahassee on Jan. 27.
To accompany our college basketball conference tournament predictions, here is our best Florida State vs. North Carolina prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Florida State vs. North Carolina prediction: ACC Tournament
Best bet: -110 via Caesars, bet365
UNC and Florida State's two regular-season meetings stayed under the projected total by an average of 10 points per contest, and the second meeting saw the two teams combine for just 143 points.
We expect regression to the mean in this third meeting given that both teams have no problem pushing the pace with tempos that rank in the top 42 nationally.
UNC might rank 336th in bench minutes this season, but the Tar Heels must feel good about the bench production against Duke. Seth Tr imble and Jae'Lyn Withers combined for 12 points and 12 rebounds.
But there is no doubt that Seminoles head coach Leonard Hamilton will try and exploit the Tar Heels' seven-man rotation and get their most productive players in foul trouble. Florida State attempts free throws at the fourth-highest rate in ACC play this season.
The Seminoles attempted 19 total free throws in the two losses against the Tar Heels this year, but we expect them to push the envelope more and be more aggressive offensively with nothing to lose.
It would behoove Florida State to get UNC center Armando Bacot off the floor, as the Tar Heels have allowed an average of 77.3 points in the last four games in which he committed four-plus fouls.
Florida State still managed 1.21 points per possession against Virginia Tech in a game where it shot just 3-for-13 (23.1%) from 3-point range. A big key in the high-scoring affair was attempting 30 free throws, but the Seminoles also allowed 24 free throw attempts, and this game should soar over the projected total if it is a similar parade to the free throw line for both teams.
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Florida State vs. North Carolina best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 153.5 | 153.5 | 153.5 | 153.5 | 153.5 |
| -112 | -115 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
While all of our best sports betting sites are in unison with the O/U of 153.5, Over backers will save some money by placing their wagers at Caesars or bet365 given that the Over is juiced as much as -115 at competing sportsbooks.
UNC has played six games at a neutral site this season and five hit the Over on the projected total. Meanwhile, the Over is also 21-11 in FSU's 32 games and it cashed in three of its last five conference tournament games.
Florida State vs. North Carolina odds
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Florida State vs. North Carolina odds analysis
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a line of UNC -9.5, as all others are a full point higher at -10.5. As of Wednesday night, there was no reported line movement at any of the sportsbooks, but 65% of the early wagers had backed the underdog Seminoles, so there is a chance more shops move to -10 before tip-off.
Compared to the point spread, the O/U is slightly more evenly split, with 60% of the wagers backing the Over.
Florida State vs. North Carolina game info
- When: Thursday, March 14 at noon ET
- Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
- How to watch: ESPN
Florida State-North Carolina prediction made Wednesday at 8:19 p.m. ET.
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