Betting the NFL preseason is an altogether different challenge than the regular season. Teams’ goals in preseason games aren’t necessarily the same. While one team may be playing to win and build momentum, the other may simply be hoping to get through unscathed.
Nevertheless, in any grouping of games that provides enough data, I try to find worthwhile nuggets that bettors can use to their advantage. Here are five betting concepts I was able to uncover after analyzing my preseason database from the last decade or so.
1. Line ranges have been telling: Oddsmakers have led bettors to water in the preseason, although these numbers can seem tricky to bettors. Since 2010, there have been eight teams favored by more than 7 points. Six of these heavy favorites won their games outright, however, they were 1-7 ATS. At the same time, favorites in the range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 118-93-4 ATS (55.9%). Most games, however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and this is where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the + 1 to + 3 range own a highly profitable record of 135-92 ATS, good for 59.5%!
2. Home field means very little: In the last 10 NFL preseasons, home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS only once. If you’re simply guessing on these games, or betting them for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given for “home-field advantage” tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. Since 2011, road teams own a 326-279 ATS edge, good for 53.9%, which is enough to make a reasonable profit. The average home line in that span is -2, and home teams are winning by only 0.7 PPG, meaning an overprice of 1.3 points. Over the last five preseasons, the road edge is 166-125 ATS (57%).