The Atlanta Falcons (5-6) visit FedExField to take on the Washington Commanders (6-5) on Nov. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Landover.
The Commanders are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).
The Falcons vs. Commanders Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction for Week 12
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this Week 12 game with 57.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread this Week 12 with 57.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Falcons and Commanders, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.20 Units / 60% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- Drake London has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Marcus Mariota has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Marcus Mariota has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.15 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Taylor Heinicke has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- Taylor Heinicke has hit the Passing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jahan Dotson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Carson Wentz has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets for Week 12:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+5.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have scored last in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.95 Units / 42% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets for Week 12:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+8.05 Units / 118% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 95% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 7-4 (+2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI).
- Falcons are 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -6.18% ROI
- Falcons are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
- Falcons are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / ROI
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders have gone 6-4 (+1.6 Units / 13.17% ROI).
- Commanders are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 38.49% ROI
- Commanders are 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
- Commanders are 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Falcons are winless (0-3) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.
The Falcons are 1-4 (.200) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .631.
The Falcons were 2-6 (.250) vs top 10 defenses last season — tied for 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.
The Falcons are 5-3 (.625) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .775.
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Commanders are 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Falcons have averaged just 1.5 sacks per game over that time span — third-worst in NFL.
The Commanders are 6-1 (.857) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .591.