The Duke Blue Devils (6-4) visit Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (2-8) on Nov. 18 in Charlottesville.
Duke is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).
The Duke vs. Virginia Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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Duke vs Virginia Prediction for Week 12
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 62.5% confidence.
Duke vs Virginia Spread Prediction for Week 12
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 52.5% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and Virginia, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Duke Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Duke has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Duke have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.70 Units / 20% ROI)
Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+10.55 Units / 149% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+9.30 Units / 123% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.80 Units / 44% ROI)
Best Duke Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Duke players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Riley Leonard has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 5 games (+5.25 Units / 72% ROI)
- Jordan Waters has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Riley Leonard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jaquez Moore has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Malik Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Tony Muskett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 79% ROI)
- Tony Muskett has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kobe Pace has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Duke is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.55 Units / -4.98% ROI).
- Duke is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 10.53% ROI
- Duke is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Duke is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia is 7-3 against the spread this college football season (+3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI).
- Virginia is 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 34.26% ROI
- Virginia is 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 43.64% ROI
- Virginia is 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.7 Units / -51.82% ROI
Duke is 13-5 (.722) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season– tied for 35th-best in FBS; Average: .583
Duke was 8-2 (.727) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season– tied for 5th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .426
Duke is 12-3 (.706) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– tied for 13th-best in FBS; Average: .449
Duke is 10-5 (.556) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2022 season– 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .432
Virginia is winless (0-9) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2022 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .376
Virginia is 1-11 (.083) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .437
Virginia is 1-12 (.071) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2022 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .393
Virginia is 1-4 (.167) when in a one score game since the 2022 season– tied for 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495
Virginia’s TEs has 12 receptions in 9 games (just 1.3 per game) this season — third-worst among P5 TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed 4.1 receptions per game to TEs this season — tied for 11th-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s TEs has gained 158 yards on 12 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — third-best among ACC TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for ninth-best among FBS defenses.