Diamondbacks-Giants prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, June 23

The top two teams in the NL West get set for a major showdown by the Bay as the first-place Arizona Diamondbacks take on the red-hot San Francisco Giants this weekend. First pitch of Friday's series opener is set for 10:15 p.m. ET. Zach Davies (1-3, 7.11 ERA) takes the mound for the visitors, while the Giants send ace Logan Webb (6-6, 3.11) to the mound.

San Francisco enters as the -175 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the D-backs are +150 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.

Diamondbacks-Giants picks: Friday, June 23

Diamondbacks

Out: RP Mark Melancon (shoulder)

Giants

Day to day: OF Mike Yastrzemski (hamstring)
Out: SP Ross Stripling (back), RP Scott Alexander (hamstring), INF Wilmer Flores (foot), SP Alex Cobb (oblique), RP John Brebbia (lat), OF Mitch Haniger (forearm),

Zach Davies vs. Logan Webb

A rough start to the season for Davies has gotten even worse of late, with a whopping 15 runs (12 earned) allowed on 15 hits and four walks over his last 6.2 innings. The righty lives and dies with his changeup, and while it's returning a healthy 36% whiff rate, batters are slugging .609 against the pitch – up from .325 last season. With a fastball that hovers around 90 mph and pedestrian secondary offerings, if Davies doesn't have his change working, there's not much to fall back on.

Webb continues to be a workhorse atop San Francisco's rotation – the righty has gone at least seven full innings in seven of his last nine starts, allowing more than three runs just once over that span. His sinker is as strong as ever, helping to produce a 61.5% ground ball rate that ranks among the highest in the league, while his slider and changeup both thrive off of it. Simply put, he's among the most reliable starters in baseball right now, even if he doesn't put up the flashy strikeout numbers of some of his fellow aces. He faced this Arizona team back in May and dominated, allowing just one run across seven frames.

Webb is as sturdy as they come on the mound, but the Diamondbacks offense has been dangerous all year, and it seems likely that they can scratch across at least two or three runs tonight – which, with Davies on the other side, should be plenty enough to hit this over. The Giants are a top-five offense since the start of June, making them a good bet to put up a crooked number against the Arizona righty. They could clear eight runs by themselves tonight.

Pick: Over 8

While I do think that Arizona will be able to get to Webb a little bit – he's reliably given up his fair share of baserunners against the better lineups he's faced – San Francisco is swinging the bats too well right now to bet against them in this matchup. The gap between Davies and Webb is simply too large.

Pick: Giants

  
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