The Dayton Flyers face the Arizona Wildcats as we offer our Dayton-Arizona picks and best bet based on the best March Madness odds.
After staging a remarkable comeback in the first round against the Nevada Wolf Pack, the No. 7 seed Dayton Flyers (25-7) must focus on their offensive prowess to contend with the high-scoring No. 2 seed Arizona Wildcats (26-8) in the second round. That game will tip off at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City at 12:45 p.m. on CBS.
Arizona, one of the top teams favored in March Madness odds, possesses one of the nation's most potent offenses, as evidenced by the team's recent 85-point performance against Long Beach State. The Wildcats play fast and the Flyers showed they're capable of keeping up after leaning on their offensive prowess during a 17-point second-half comeback against Nevada.
Despite Dayton scoring 38 points over the la st 20 minutes against the Wolf Pack, they enter Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog across our best sports betting sites. Can the Flyers pull off the massive upset on Saturday?
As part of our March Madness predictions, here are our best Dayton vs. Arizona picks and best bets (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dayton vs. Arizona odds
Dayton (7) vs. Arizona (2) best bet: West Region
Best odds: -111 via Betway
Few teams in the country have been as impressive offensively in 2023-24 as Arizona. The Wildcats are third in the country in points per game (87.9), ninth on KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they boast eight of the top 15 players in the Pac-12 in OBPR, according to Evan Miya. That offense is the reason Arizona is as short as +210 by the Final Four odds.
With Caleb Love leading the way while sitting seventh in the March Madness MVP odds, the Wildcats have scored 80-plus points in 26 of 34 games during 2023-24. Love, a third-team AP All-American, is one of five players on Tommy Lloyd's team averaging double-digit points per game. Arizona has proven to be one of the most efficient teams in the country while shooting 48.7% from the floor, 54.4% from two, and 37.1% from three. The squad can pounce on a Dayton defense that ranks 70th in adjusted efficiency.
The Flyers' best course of action is to keep up with Arizona, and Anthony Grant's team should be capable of scoring. NBA prospect DaRon Holmes II is a huge reason why Dayton ranks 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and has been putting up 74.4 points per game. Holmes averages 20.3 points per contest, and his combo of size (6-foot-10) and floor-stretching ability (38% from three) can create problems for the Wildcat s.
Dayton is one of the nation's best 3-point shooting programs while hitting 40.2% from behind the arc (third best in college basketball), and the school averages 9.5 made 3-pointers per game. Nate Santos and Koby Brea – who both shoot over 42% from three – can help Holmes beat up on an Arizona defense that gives up the third most 3-pointers per outing in Pac-12 play (8.1).
The -111 odds via Betway imply a 52.61% probability the Over hits, according to our odds calculator, and a $10 wager would result in a $9.01 profit.
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Dayton vs. Arizona spread & Over/Under analysis
Arizona opened as an 8.5-point favorite against Dayton after handling its business in the first round against No. 15 Long Beach State. The spread has since shifted a point in the Wildcats' direction at Betway, with Arizona now at -9.5. It would be shocking to see it move another point toward Arizona after the Flyers' struggles against Nevada. Dayton is just 16-15-1 against the spread, while Arizona is 21-13.
Both of these teams have been flashing explosive offenses and NBA talent throughout the season, resulting in the game total opening at 150.5. It did dip down to 148.5 before coming up to 149.5, and it could rise back to 150.5 before tipoff.
The Flyers have been a solid Over bet during 2023-24 at 18-13-1, and the Wildcats are 4-1 against the Over in games with a total lower than 150.
Dayton vs. Arizona game info
- When: Saturday, March 23
- Tip-off: 12:45 p.m. ET
- Where: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
- How to watch: CBS
Dayton-Arizona prediction made Friday at 10:25 a.m. ET.
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