Cubs-Cardinals prediction: Picks, odds on Sunday, June 25

Not even a trip across the pond could cool the Chicago Cubs down, as they romped to a 9-1 win over the rival St. Louis Cardinals in game one of the 2023 London Series on Saturday. The two teams are set to meet one more time on Sunday morning, with first pitch from London Stadium set for 10:10 a.m. ET. Chicago will turn to ace Marcus Stroman (9-4, 2.28 ERA), while Matthew Liberatore (1-2, 6.12) gets the ball for St. Louis after scheduled starter Jack Flaherty was scratched due to hip tightness.

The Cubs enter as the -150 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Cardinals checking in at +130. The run total is set at 11.5.

Cubs

Out: 3B Patrick Wisdom (wrist), RP Brad Boxberger (forearm), RP Brandon Hughes (knee)

Cardinals

Day to day: SP Jack Flaherty (hip), RP Jordan Hicks (illness)
Out: RP Ryan Helsley (forearm), INF Jose Fermin (quad), OF Tyler O'Neill (back)

Marcus Stroman vs. Matthew Liberatore

Stroman has been unconscious for a full month now, allowing two or fewer runs – while pitching at least six innings, and clearing seven innings three times – in each of his last seven starts. His sinker is as effective as ever, producing a 59.9% ground ball rate, while he's had great feel for his slider (35% whiff rate) and splitter (35.6% whiff rate). He's simply in complete command right now, rarely if ever missing over the heart of the plate and benefitting from the elite defensive combo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner up the middle.. The righty has faced St. Louis once already this season, allowing two runs over six innings of work while taking a hard-luck loss back on May 8.

Jack Flaherty was initially set to go on Sunday, but some tightness in his right hip has the lefty Liberatore taking his place. Liberatore was called up last month after a sensational start in Triple-A, but the former top prospect hasn't been able to translate that to the Majors so far this year. He's allowed four or more runs in three of his five starts, with an expected batting average and expected slugging percentage in the bottom five percent of the league.

Despite Chicago's offensive outburst, Saturday's total still fell short of this number – largely because the Cardinals couldn't get anything going against Cubs starter Justin Steele. I expect Sunday to follow a similar script: Liberatore has been hit hard all year long and will be especially vulnerable against a righty-heavy Chicago lineup, while Stroman is about as reliable as a starter can get right now. I expect him to keep the Cards in check over six or seven innings of work, and the Cubs will fall just short of doing enough to hit this steep over.

Pick: Under 11.5

I've already tipped my hand here, but there's just no way you can trust Liberatore making an emergency start in this spot, particularly not against a Cubs lineup that's in the top 10 in team OPS against lefties. Stroman's ability to keep the ball on the ground will be immensely helpful in such an extreme offensive environment, and we just haven't seen the Cardinals hit the way we expected them to all year.

Pick: Cubs

  
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