March Madness officially begins Tuesday night, and the Colorado State Rams take on the Virginia Cavaliers in a Midwest Region First Four clash, as we offer our best Colorado State vs. Virginia prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
The 2023-24 campaign was one of the craziest college basketball seasons we've seen in years, and two of the First Four matchups feature No. 10 seeds. That speaks to the talent level on the bubble this year and the number of bids stolen during conference tournaments.
Colorado State (24-10) and Virginia (23-10) narrowly escaped becoming victims of bid-stealers after being bounced in their conference tournaments. They now have to square off in the First Four on Tuesday, with the victor advancing to challenge the No. 7 seed Texas Longhorns in the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament.
The line for Colorado State to go Over 61.5 points hasn't moved much as we approach game time, with FanDuel's odds shortening slightly from -114 to -110, providing a slightly more profitable return if the wager hits.
To accompany our Wagner vs. Howard prediction and other March Madness predictions, here is our best Colorado State vs. Virginia prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Colorado State vs. Virginia odds
Colo rado State (10) vs. Virginia (10) prediction: Midwest Region
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel
My first instinct for this game was to bet the Under in a matchup featuring two of the slowest-paced teams in the country. Our best sports betting sites were one step ahead of me, opening this contest with the lowest total on the board.
That makes sense in theory, but it feelt like the market had gone too far, especially as it concerns Colorado State's offense. The Rams featured a top-50 unit this year behind star senior Isaiah Stevens, who ranked in the top seven nationally in assists per game (7.0) and assist rate (39.6%) – a key reason why his team ranked second in the country in assist rate (65.7%).
Clearly, this is a tough test against a Virginia team ranked seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency with the fewest number of possessions per game (61.9). Still, the Cavaliers have allowed at least 60 points in four of their last five games, and only one of those teams boasted a more efficient offense than Colorado State.
Even with a below-average pace themselves, the Rams have scored 60-plus in nine straight games and 32 of 34 games overall, and they're projected to score 64 on Tuesday, via KenPom. This will surely be one of the lowest-scoring games of the tournament, but I'm not expecting quite as much of a rock fight as this team total suggests.
The odds recently shifted at our best sports betting sites, with DraftKings moving from 110 to -120. BetMGM added a point to the total to align with the others, while also lengthening its odds from -110 to -1 18. FanDuel's odds lengthened from -108 to -114, but returned to -110, still offering the best value.
The -110 odds have an implied probability of 52.38%. A winning $10 would pay a profit of $9.09.
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Colorado State vs. Virginia best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 61.5 | Over 61.5 | Over 61.5 | Over 61.5 |
| -120 | -110 | -118 | -120 |
DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM offered odds on Colorado State's team total as of Monday morning, while bet365 placed the bet on the board in the afternoon.
While 60.5 is no longer available, 61.5 still offers great value. This line could land as high as 63.5 prior to tipoff. Be sure to check out our best sportsbook promos to maximize your potential profit via BetMGM or whichever book you bet with.
Colorado State vs. Virginia spread & Over/Under analysis
Colorado State opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Virginia for their First Four matchup on Tuesday, even though the Rams were officially the final team selected for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. The line has since moved, with Colorado State the -2.5-point favorite.
Don't be fooled by the overall seed list, though, as this team has the star power to give the Ca valiers trouble in the first round.
At 118.5, this game also opened with the lowest total of the entire first round and First Four combined. However, our best sports betting apps total odds have shifted and, at least for now, stand between 120.5 and 121.5.
Colorado State vs. Virginia game info
- When: Tuesday, March 19
- Tip-off: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Where: University of Dayton Arena, Dayton, Oh.
- How to watch: truTV
Colorado State-Virginia prediction made Sunday at 8:15 p.m. ET.
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