The Colorado State Rams and Virginia Cavaliers face off in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament, as we offer our best Colorado State vs. Virginia prediction based on the best March Madness odds.
In one of the craziest college basketball seasons we've seen in years and two of the First Four matchups feature No. 10 seeds. That speaks to the talent level on the bubble this year and the number of bids stolen during conference tournaments.
The Colorado State Rams (24-10) and Virginia Cavaliers (23-10) were nearly victims of those bid-stealers after each lost in their respective conference tournaments. Instead, they'll face off Tuesday in the First Four for the right to face the No. 7 seed Texas Longhorns in the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament.
As part of our March Madness predictions, here is our best Colorado State vs. Virginia prediction and college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Colorado State vs. Virginia odds
Colorado State (10) vs. Virginia (10) prediction: Midwest Region
Best odds: -120 via DraftKings
My first instinct for this game was to bet the Under in a matchup featuring two of the slowest-paced teams in the country. Our best sports betting sites were one step ahead of me, opening this contest with the lowest total on the board.
That makes sense in theory, but it feels like the market has gone too far, especially as it concerns Colorado State's offense. The Rams featured a top-50 unit this year behind star senior Isaiah Stevens, who ranked in the top seven nationally in assists per game (7.0) and assist rate (39.6%) – a key reason why his team ranked second in the country in assist rate (65 .7%).
Clearly, this is a tough test against a Virginia team ranked seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency with the fewest number of possessions per game (61.9). Still, the Cavaliers have allowed at least 60 points in four of their last five games, and only one of those teams boasted a more efficient offense than Colorado State.
Even with a below-average pace themselves, the Rams have scored 60-plus in nine straight games and 32 of 34 games overall, and they're projected to score 64 on Tuesday, via KenPom. This will surely be one of the lowest-scoring games of the tournament, but I'm not expecting quite as much of a rock fight as this team total suggests.
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Colorado State vs. Virginia best odds
| DraftKings |
|---|
| Over 59.5 |
| -120 |
Only DraftKings is offering odds on Colorado State's team total as of Sunday evening, but expect the rest of our best sportsbooks to list this market as tip-off nears for the First Four matchups of the NCAA Tournament.
When they do, I'd expect them to be priced closer to the advanced model projection of 64 points, which makes this early number of 59.5 an absolute bargain for Over bettors. Be sure to check out our best sportsbook promos to maximize your potential profit via DraftKings or whichever book you bet with.
Colorado State vs. Virginia spread & Over/Under analysis
Colorado State opened as 1.5-point favorite over Virginia for their First Four matchup on Tuesday, even though the Rams were officially the final team selected for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. Don't be fooled by the overall seed list, though, as this team has the star power to give the Cavaliers trouble in the first round.
This game also opened with the lowest total of the entire first round and First Four combined, with our best sports betting apps hanging a total between 117.5 and 118.5. We could see some dramatic movement at that number in a matchup between two teams with among the slowest tempos in the country.
Colorado State vs. Virginia game info
- When: Tuesday, March 19
- Tip-off: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Where: University of Dayton Arena, Dayton, Oh.
- How to watch: tru TV
Colorado State-Virginia prediction made Sunday at 8:15 p.m. ET.
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