A 4-5 record last week cooled my recent hot stretch a bit, but over the last three weeks, I have still compiled a much-needed 15-9-1 record, pulling myself out from the hole dug on my own personal “Black Saturday” of September 30th. Let’s continue pushing forward with 11 more plays for Week 9.
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Michigan State at Minnesota
Although highly controversial because of the errant fair catch signal penalty on the late punt return nullified for Iowa, Minnesota’s win last week was huge in the grand scheme of things and could propel the Golden Gophers to a late season run, starting this week at home versus floundering Michigan State. Though they didn’t exactly play well last week in Iowa City, the win itself is a huge momentum boost according to this betting system: Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 65-39 ATS (62.5%) in the follow-up contest.
Minnesota has also won eight of the last nine ATS in this head-to-head series, including last year in a 34-7 decision on the road when the teams were at very similar levels to what they are now. That game also had a 508-240 yardage margin. MSU is struggling badly, having lost five in a row, and its entire program is reeling right now. Why would the Spartans decide to all of a sudden “bring it” here in a cross-divisional game?
Take Minnesota -7, with anything lower being great
Florida State at Wake Forest
Surviving an unexpectedly close game can be a big momentum booster for an elite team. While the final score doesn’t necessarily reflect how close the battle with Duke was last week, the late rally for the Seminoles in scoring all 21 4th quarter points en route to a 38-20 win could prove big down the stretch.
Here, they get a Wake Forest team whose offense has taken a dump without QB Sam Hartman this season. The Demon Deacons are down about 15 PPG from their production of the last three seasons. After three straight losses to the Wake, FSU finally gets a great shot at payback and is backed by this angle: Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 45-32 ATS (58.4%) since 2016.
My Effective Stats numbers project that the Demon Deacons will only get around 13 points here. With a total of 53, that would mean the experts project the road favorites to get around 40. I could easily see a 28-point comfortable win here in a spot that might appear tough on paper, but not when you look beneath the hood and see that Wake is not a potent home dog anymore.