Week 9 college football best bets
How in the world are we already two-thirds of the way through the college football season? The offseason crawls by and then the season comes and goes in the blink of an eye. After a 1-2 best bets week last week, I’m ready to put that behind us and get back on track, as we’re still 6-3 the last three weeks. I thought coming into this week that it would become harder to find value in my numbers, as we now have adequate data on each team so I would assume my ratings and oddsmakers’ would start to sync up a little more than they have thus far; turns out, TSI is still indicating there’s value on quite a bit this week, so let’s get into what I like best from the model this week.
College Football Betting Splits | CFB Odds | CFB Matchups | Week 9 Hub
North Texas vs Memphis (-7.5), O/U 69
For what it’s worth, when a college football total has been 67 or higher this season, the under is 15-6-1 (71%). I’d never encourage you to blindly play something, but TSI projects this game with just 62.5 total points, so we’re getting a touchdown of value on the total here. In general, I especially like high total unders on games involving Group of Five teams, as these totals require a level of offensive efficiency from both teams that is difficult to achieve at that level. When accounting for just games involving sub-power 5 (G5 and FCS) teams, the under is 11-3 (79%) this season. As for this matchup, Memphis – generally known for its offense – is No. 8 in my Group of Five defensive ratings, which should provide enough resistance to slow the No. 7 G5 offense in North Texas to keep this total under the number.
Pick: Under 69 (Play to 68)