College football expert betting picks for Week 11
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Alabama (-11; 47) at Kentucky
The Crimson Tide now controls its destiny in the SEC West with victories over Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and pulling away in the second half vs. LSU last week. Now Alabama pays a rare visit to Lexington to face Kentucky in an early noon ET kickoff.
Last week was the first time Alabama played a complete game offensively against an opponent with a pulse, but it was against an LSU defense that ranks No. 12 out of 14 teams in the SEC and is No. 96 nationally.
Alabama has caught its fair share of breaks as well, having barely escaped at Texas A&M, only beating Arkansas, who has since fired its defensive coordinator, by three and trailing Tennessee by two touchdowns at halftime.
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops and defensive coordinator Brad White play a great deal of zone and give up the underneath stuff to take away mobile quarterbacks. The Wildcats defense held Akron's DJ Irons to 30 yards on 13 carries, Missouri's Brady Cook to 40 yards on 10 carries, Tennessee's Joe Milton to 26 yards on 10 carries, and Mississippi State's Mike Wright to 20 yards on 11 carries. Yes, Jalen Milroe is certainly an upgrade from the above list, but he could get confused by the zone and end up taking sacks or forcing a turnover.
The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five as conference home dogs of more than 4 points. Meanwhile, Alabama is 4-8 ATS over the last three years in true road games.
Bet: Kentucky +11 (Play to +10)
Virginia Tech (-1; 49) at Boston College
Boston College has won five games in a row and is now bowl eligible after a 1-3 start that included a home loss to a now 4-6 Northern Illinois team, a 3-point escape vs. FCS Holy Cross, a close call in the “red bandana” game vs. Florida State and a blowout loss at Louisville.
BC's five-game winning streak includes victories over 2-8 Virginia, at 3-6 Army, at 5-4 Georgia Tech, who might be the most up-and-down program in FBS, vs. 1-8 UConn, and at 4-5 Syracuse, who is currently on a five-game losing streak. BC's average margin of victory in these last five games is just 7 PPG.
Virginia Tech also started at 1-3 and crawled back to 4-5. The Hokies lost 31-3 at Louisville last weekend but can bounce back here against a BC team that is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as home chalk.
Bet: Virginia Tech -1 (Play to -2.5)
Michigan (-4.5; 45) at Penn State
As Michigan awaits results from the NCAA's investigation regarding allegations of off-campus scouting and signal stealing by a former Wolverines staffer, the No. 3 team at last plays a team with a pulse traveling to Happy Valley to face No. 10 Penn State.
The nickname “Big Game James” refers to Los Angeles Lakers legend James Worthy, and unfortunately for Penn State fans, that moniker has not fit James Franklin as he is just 5-10 ATS in his career vs. Top 5 teams.
Franklin does have the nation's No. 2 Total Defense (Michigan is No. 1) and the nation's No. 1 Rush Defense that will force JJ McCarthy to make plays down the field against an elite Penn State secondary.
Penn State finally started to throw the ball down the field last week at Maryland, and Drew Allar had his best game throwing the football since the opener vs. West Virginia.
The Nittany Lions were in this situation three weeks ago, rolling off a soft schedule and then having to play a tough opponent on the road and getting behind early at Ohio State. Michigan likely does the same here.
Bet: Penn State +4.5 (Play to +4)
Texas Tech at Kansas (-4; 62)
Kansas is off two consecutive big victories as underdogs, having defeated Oklahoma and winning at Iowa State last weekend.
Everything has come up Jayhawks this season, while Texas Tech, who many predicted would be the Big XII sleeper this season, has had a multitude of injuries (particularly at quarterback) and some hard luck.