Following last week's three-leg parlay that cashed at +810 odds, we are back with another wager with a big potential payday. Read on for our three-leg college football parlay that pays out roughly 4:1 odds for Week 1 based on the best NCAAF odds.
Our three-leg parlay starts with our most conservative play involving a Friday night game because it is no fun having your wager busted after the first play. However, from there, we get creative with a team total Under involving a first-year head coach and a more traditional point spread play that fades a team that got most of the offseason hype.
Here are our best college football parlay picks for Week 1 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football parlay picks: Week 1
- Louisville first-half moneyline (-250) vs. Georgia Tech ????
- Purdue Under 26.5 team total points (-115) vs. Fresno State ????
- TCU -20.5 (-110) vs. Colorado ???
Combined odds: +399 via DraftKings
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College football parlay predictions: Week 1
Former Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield surprisingly left the team after an 8-5 campaign, but the program is in great hands with former Purdue coach Jeff Brohm. Brohm had winning se asons in three of the six years with the Boilermakers, including winning 17 combined games in the last two. And unlike other programs that required a massive rebuild, the cupboard is not bare at Louisville. The Cardinals were two single-digit losses (they lost by five combined points to Florida State and Boston College) from a 10-win season.
Despite the new hire, there will be some familiarity in the Cardinals' offensive system as Brohm reunites with quarterback Jake Plummer after spending four years together at Purdue. But while Plummer is one of 25 transfers brought in by Brohm, Louisville projects as a top-20 defense nationally, per SP+. The Cardinals ranked fourth in the ACC in scoring defense (20.2 ppg), second in sacks (42), and had the conference's best total defense (307.3 yards per game allowed). The defense only got stronger with one of the best cornerbacks in the transfer portal, Storm Duck, joining All-ACC caliber cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
Georgia Tech, meanwhile, had a -63 point differential in going 4-4 in eight games under interim coach Brent Key, but four wins were by five or fewer points. We're not expecting much early from Texas A&M transfer Haynes King at quarterback after he completed just 56.6% of his passes and had a 10-10 TD-INT ratio in three seasons with the Aggies.
Our Phil Wood's also backing the Cardinals with his Louisville vs. Georgia Tech prediction.
The Purdue Boilermakers are on upset alert against the Fresno State Bulldogs, the reigning Mountain West champions. Fresno State lost All-Mountain West First-Team quarterback Jake Haener to the NFL, so it may be a little more conservative on offense early in the season while relying on a stout, veteran defense.
The Bulldogs have arguably the best defensive front in the conference, a group that bolstere d a defense that finished last year ranked 36th in SP+. Fresno State had 11 players that made 400-plus tackles last year and eight return, which makes Ryan Walters' job as a first-time head coach at Purdue even more difficult in this opener.
The Boilermakers' new Air Raid offense will take some time to find its rhythm, with signal caller Hudson Card (transfer from Texas) throwing to a group of wide receivers with just two players with 300-plus career receiving yards.
Specific trends also point to a low-scoring output from the home team, as Purdue went under this total in five of its final seven games last season, and the first half Under is 17-5 in Fresno State's last 22.
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The narrative surrounding this game is that TCU was invol ved in the worst beatdown in national championship history, as the 65 points it allowed to Georgia were the most in any title game in the BCS/CFP era. On the other side, the Colorado Buffaloes are the most intriguing, must-watch team on the West Coast with Deion Sanders at the helm. Sanders may use his power and influence in the transfer portal to create a powerhouse in Boulder, or the “Coach Prime” experiment could fall flat at the FBS level. We are eventually banking on the latter to unfold.
To give one an idea of how overhyped the Buffaloes are, they had the sixth-most bets to win the College Football Playoff in early May, per BetMGM's John Ewing. Colorado projects as one of the worst Power Five defenses (115th nationally, per SP+), while TCU reporter Jeremy Clark said this year's team is the most physically impressive and athletic group he has seen in his 18 years of covering the Horned Frogs.
The vast amount of transfers Louisville brought in did not dissuade us in our first wager because of the head coach-quarterback familiarity. However, Colorado seems like a conglomerate mess led by a head coach who has not proven anything at the FBS level. He will be in over his head against a team that played for a national championship last year.
Our Brenden Schaeffer has a different take on this final leg of our parlay with his Colorado vs. TCU prediction.
College football parlay picks made 9/1/2023 at 6:40 a.m. ET.
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