BYU vs. Cincinnati Odds
Friday, Sep 2910:15pm ETESPN
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -1.5-105 | 49.5-110o / -110u | -113 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| +1.5-115 | 49.5-110o / -110u | -106 |
Odds via'FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute'NCAAF odds here.
Why You Should Bet Cincinnati
My case for Cincinnati here is simple: The Bearcats are tremendously undervalued entering Week 5.
Cincinnati enters this game off back-to-back losses against Miami (OH) and Oklahoma. Those are two of the most misleading box scores of the season.
In Week 3, Cincinnati outgained Miami (OH) 538 to 358 in yards, generating 14 more first downs (30 to 16) and three more scoring opportunities (7 to 4). The Bearcats generated a higher EPA per Play (0.09 to 0.01) and a much higher Success Rate (46% to 35%).
In Week 4, Cincinnati generated six points off six scoring opportunities (!). The Bearcats scored three points in their final four trips inside the red zone (!).
That's impossible. That can't happen again. I'm betting it won't happen again.
The Scott Satterfield offense looks fine. It's a top-50 unit, using a balanced attack spearheaded by dual-threat quarterback in Emory Jones. Given the tremendous turnover on that side of the ball (only three returning starters from last year's team), the unit could continue to improve as the season progresses.
The defense looks fine, too, ranking top-30 nationally in Success Rate Allowed.
Despite being 2-2, the Bearcats have a +8% Net Success Rate.
Cincinnati has been handicapped by late-down efficiency, as it's 2-for-7 on fourth down over the past two weeks. Late-down efficiency tends to trend towards early-down efficiency.
Also, Cincinnati has been handicapped in the field position battle, ranking 131st nationally in average starting field position (own 13) and 130th in average starting field position allowed (opposing 36). For a generally strong special teams and punting unit (headlined by Mason Fletcher), I don't expect that trend to continue.
So, all of this positive regression the Bearcats are due for should come crashing down upon BYU – the Bearcats are playing much better than their record indicates – and I don't expect the Cougars to keep up.