Today, we are going to look at value picks in division winners. There are numerous teams who stand out and show immense potential. Let’s dive into these dark-horse candidates.
ACC Atlantic
NC State +475: NC State boasts easily a top-three returning production profile. They have an offensive returning production ranking of 19th paired with a 2021 SP+ offense ranking of 41st and a defensive returning production ranking of first paired with a 2021 SP+ defense ranking of 14th. This is elite returning production from elite units. To put it in perspective, NC State is the only team to rank top 15 in every defensive returning production category: second in tackles, second in passes defended, 12th in pressures, and second in stops. They will also see positive regression in takeaways. The defense ranked 35th in overall havoc rate but only produced 16 takeaways (76th overall). QB Devin Leary will look to replicate his 2021 season (3,433 passing yards, 8.0 yds/att, 35 TDs, and five INTs). He has the potential to push this offense to the next level and that will provide NC State the firepower to break through in a rejuvenated ACC. +475 is an absolute steal.