College Football Betting Recap For Championship Weekend
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Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his college football championship weekend betting recap as well as his lookahead to bowl season kicking off on December 16th What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!
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College Football Bowl Betting Preview
This week's article is all about bowl game preparation. I'll discuss some of the areas that I find to be important when preparing to write about and handicap the college bowl season.
Let's start first with a look back at last week's conference championship action, and what was learned.
College Football Championship Weekend Recap
Defense isn't sexy, but it wins championships
SMU was forced to play with a backup QB for the first time all season. I usually find that teams rally under these circumstances, as I said in a couple of podcasts last week. Tulane capitalized on an early fumble to lead 7-0 (one-yard drive), but after that SMU dominated defensively, and won 26-14.
Florida State did the exact same thing in their victory over Louisville, who actually was favored by kickoff. Holding Louisville to six points was an underrated accomplishment.
Let's not forget Michigan, who pitched a shutout over Iowa. Yes, we all know that Iowa has a terrible offense, but what I like about this performance is that Michigan's offense held its own against Iowa's fine defense, and never gave the Hawkeyes an opportunity to dictate field position.
Unfortunately, defense isn't sexy enough to sell tickets and sway committee members
SMU went 11-2, but Liberty got the invite to the New Year's Six game despite the 133rd and last ranked strength of schedule. Liberty is an offensive machine, but SMU is the better team.
While Florida State is NOT a better team as compared to Alabama, going 13-0, and 2-0 vs. the SEC was not enough. It's political, yes, but in this day and age where offense sells tickets, the Seminole's didn't score enough points.
True handicappers know that matchups matter
The casual observer would not guess that if Washington played Oregon a 3rd time, they would still be an underdog. The same is true if Alabama would rematch against Georgia. That's what the Power Numbers would say (not just mine, but those who set the lines). But matchup analysis matters, and in both cases, there were reasons to like the underdogs.
Texas is for real
I expected Texas to look good against a below average Oklahoma State defense, but the way they effortlessly took care of business was impressive. Only a last second loss on neutral ground to Oklahoma prevented this team from being the #1 seed.
College Football Bowl Game Betting Advice
Handicapping bowl games is generally far different than handicapping games played during the regular season. While some of the early bowl games seem more like extensions of the regular season, the majority of the games have to be looked at using more than just simple matchup analysis.
Below I will list some of the important points I consider as part of my bowl game preparation.
Motivation matters
Bowl motivation can be defined in various ways, and in all cases, must be one of the first factors to consider. In the last decade, Texas, Oregon and USC (last year) saw their playoff and/or national title game dreams crushed in conference championship losses. Most teams who fit this narrative come out flat during bowl preparation, especially if they are not playing a named opponent.
Another example is when a bowl team hasn't met their seasonal expectations. Teams used to playing in higher profile bowl games are not going to have the same motivation when tasked to play in a lower level bowl game. This is especially true when a Power Five program faces off vs. a lower-level conference foe.
Some teams are thrilled to be in a bowl game, especially if they haven't been to a bowl in a few years. As long as they are not overwhelmed by the new experience this could lead to positive results on game day
Site of game can be important
Playing close to home can be a blessing or a curse. Home underdogs in bowl games have fared well, but there are cases where the players don't “feel” like it's a bowl game when there's no travel involved. This is where fan support can come into play.
There are rabid fan bases who will travel anywhere for bowl games and fan bases who do not travel. You can find sites that show which schools returned unused tickets and which schools sold out their allotment and want more tickets.
I'm not advocating a bet be made solely on whether the site of a bowl game appeals to fans of a school, but young college players get motivated by where they are playing, who they are playing and the body language of the staff and the fans, so it is wise to at least read the local papers to see what's being said.