Our college football best bets of the week includes an AP top 11 matchup that headlines what should be an entertaining weekend. We tap into several markets for our college football best bets for Week 2 based on the best NCAAF odds.
No team has ever made the College Football Playoff after losing its opening game, but time will tell if that spells doom for the Tigers of LSU and Clemson.
Meanwhile, the matchup in Austin last year between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Texas Longhorns was one of the most exciting non-conference games of the season, and this year's winner in the rematch will be riding high heading into conference play.
And after the Colorado Buffaloes went from one win in 2022 to an AP top 22 after a monumental Week 1 upset, will any other teams make a leap as big in Week 2?
Here are our best colleg e football best bets (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football best bets: Week 2
- Gabe Ervin Jr. (Nebraska) anytime touchdown scorer vs. Colorado (-138 via bet365) ????
- Evan Stewart (Texas A&M) Over 66.5 receiving yards vs. Miami (-115 via DraftKings) ????
- Quinn Ewers (Texas) Over 242.5 passing yards vs. Alabama (-117 via Caesars) ????
- Iowa St. team total Under 7.5 first half points vs. Iowa (-150 via DraftKings) ?????
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Week 2 college football schedule and odds
(odds via Caesars)
- Notre Dame (-7.5) vs. NC State
- Utah (-8) vs. Baylor
- Nebraska vs. Colorado (-3)
- Ole Miss (-7.5) vs. Tulane
- Texas A&M (-4) vs. Miami
- Texas vs. Alabama (-7)
- Stanford vs. USC (-29)
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College football predictions for Week 2
Oddsmakers expect a shootout in this early Saturday contest, despite Nebraska's measly 10-point output in Week 1, as the Over/Under could creep into the 60s by kickoff. As such, Cornhuskers running back Gabe Ervin Jr. is one of six players at DraftKings who has non-plus-money odds to score a touchdown.
Even though Ervin had fewer attempts than fellow running back Anthony Grant (nine) and quarterback Jeff Si ms (19), Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule figures to use Ervin more, as he was electric with 7.9 yards per carry on limited touches. It would make sense for Rhule not to subject his quarterbacks to 20-plus hits every week, and Colorado was vulnerable on defense last week, allowing 262 rushing yards on 7.1 yards per carry and four touchdowns on the ground. This is a four-star play, as TCU averaged the same amount of overall yards per play as Colorado despite the Buffaloes quarterback throwing for a school-record 510 yards.
The value at bet365 is tremendous, considering Ervin Jr.'s odds to score a touchdown are -170 at DraftKings and -185 at FanDuel.
In last year's 17-9 slugfest against Miami, Aggies receivers combined for just 10 catches and 140 yards, and it foreshadowed the struggles that the offense would endure under quarterback Max Johnson. However, while Texas A&M blew out an inferior New Mexi co team in Week 1, we were encouraged by what we saw out of new quarterback Conner Weigman, the first Aggies quarterback to throw five touchdowns in a season opener.
Weigman leads FBS in total QBR and ranks in the top 10 nationally in PFF's ADOT, overall offensive and passing grades, and offensive grades when both pressured and blitzed, per Aggies beat writer Carter Karels. His favorite target last week was Evan Stewart, as the two connected for 115 yards on eight completions (two touchdowns).
This is a four-star play, as the new Aggies offense under Bobby Petrino had Weigman push the ball downfield for six passes of over 20 yards, while PFF gave Miami's secondary an 82nd-ranked coverage grade.
We are headed to DraftKings for this wager, as Caesars offers a lower total (O/U 66.5) but is charging -133 to back the Over, which is not worth it for one yard's difference .
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Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers may make Longhorns fans quickly forget about the potential star on the roster in Arch Manning, especially if he continues to start this season as strong as last year.
In his first four starts last year, Ewers posted an 88 total QBR, the sixth-best in FBS. He completed 68% of his passes, averaged 8.8 yards per attempt, and had nine touchdowns against two interceptions. However, over his last six starts, Ewers had a 52 QBR and had his completion percentage (54%) and yards per attempt (6.7) drop considerably over that span.
In a challenging environment in Tuscaloosa, Ewers can rely on the 85% of offensive production the team returns, which is the second-most in the Big 12 and third-most in FBS. And if you are worried about A labama's ability to pressure Ewers, he is better when he gets the ball out quickly. In 2022, when he had less than 2.5 seconds to throw, Ewers completed 66% of his passes, had a 10% off-target percentage, and seven TDs and zero picks (the best among Big 12 QBs w/ min. 250 pass att). When he took 2.5 seconds or more, he completed 50% of his passes, had a 24% off-target percentage, and seven TDs against six INTs.
DraftKings has Ewers' O/U at 246.5 yards (-115 for the Over), and FanDuel is even higher at 250.5 yards (-114 for the Over), so the -117 price tag for some extra yards of wiggle room makes sense.
Iowa State's offense was decimated over a gambling probe that caused them to lose 3,000-yard passer Hunter Dekkers and leading rusher Jirehl Brock. This was already a Cyclones offense that averaged just 20.2 points per game and ranked outside the top 100 in scoring last season, and now faces an Iowa defense t hat allowed the fewest yards per play (4.1) in the country last year.
The Cyclones also have an O/U team total of 1.5 touchdowns at DraftKings, so it is not far-fetched that they go without a touchdown or that one touchdown is their only score in the first 30 minutes.
DraftKings offers intriguing +114 plus-money odds to back the Under of 6.5. We would not put anyone off that wager, considering the Hawkeyes held a more established Cyclones offense to three first-half points last year and held more of its opponents (four) to single digits last year than opponents who scored two-plus touchdowns against them. However, the Under of 7.5 seems like an absolute lock and one we are willing to pay the steeper -150 price for, and we will not necessarily get burned if Iowa State finds the end zone early.
College football best bets made 9/8/2023 at 6:31 a.m. ET.
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