Three new conference tournaments begin today as the madness starts to kick into high gear, and we offer our top college basketball player props and best bets for Tuesday based on the best college basketball odds.
Conference tournament action got underway with two hard-fought games from the ASUN on Monday, and now the Sun Belt, Horizon, and the Patriot League begin their postseason tournaments on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, the top two seeds in next week's Big Ten tournament do battle as Illinois hosts Purdue, and the Alabama-Florida game is a potential preview of a later-round SEC tournament matchup.
Following a 4-0 day yesterday, what is in store for Tuesday's college basketball picks?
Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Tuesday (college basketball picks based on odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's college basketball best bets
- Joel Soriano Under 12.5 points vs. DePaul (-130 via DraftKings) ???
- Ethan Taylor Over 2.5 assists vs. Wyoming (+135 via bet365) ????
- Purdue-Illinois Over 163.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ????
- Georgetown +8 vs. Providence (-110 via bet365) ????
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Tuesday's college basketball schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Purdue vs. Illinois | Spread: Illinois -2 | Total: 163.5
- Notre Dame vs. North Carolina | Spread: North Carolina -15 | Total: 138
- Alabama vs. Florida | Spread: Florida -1.5 | Total: 175.5
- Kansas State vs. Kansas | Spread: Kansas -11 | Total: 143.5
- Auburn vs. Missouri | Spread: Auburn -11.5 | Total: 149
- San Diego S tate vs. UNLV | Spread: San Diego State -1.5 | Total: 136.5
Tuesday's college basketball player props
The last time these teams met, 11 St. John's players scored in an 85-57 Red Storm romp. Though another offensive explosion is certainly in store against a DePaul team that has allowed 91-plus points in three of the previous six games, St. John's is also likely to spread out the scoring again, and Joel Soriano is likely to play more to the same 11-point total in which he ended the first matchup than he is to go Over this projected total.
Soriano ranks in the top 50 nationally in KenPom's offensive rating metric, but he has scored 13 or more points just once in the last eight games. Creighton's Ryan Kalkrenner torched DePaul for 42 combined points in the two matchups, and Villanova's Eric Dixon averaged 18 per game in the two contests. However, Dixon can stretch the floor a lot more with his 3-point shooting prowess, while Kalkbrenner plays above the rim more than Soriano and is more often the recipient of lobs and easy baskets off dribble penetration.
DraftKings and bet365 have the same -130 odds for Soriano to go Under his projected point total.
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Air Force point guard Ethan Taylor has recorded two or fewer assists in four of the last seven games, but his floor lately is two assists, as he has reached that total in every game in that span.
Thus, projecting him for three or more assists is worth the plus-money odds, especially when facing a Wyoming defense that he carved up for four assists during his team's 72-point outburst in late January.
Wyoming has the third-worst adjusted defensive efficiency of all Mountain West teams and allows assists on more than half of its field goals allowed in league play. Conversely, Air Force ranks eighth nationally in assists per made field goal, and the Falcons should have plenty of clean possessions against a Cowboys defense that turns opponents over at the lowest rate in the league (13.0%).
The best value for this wager is found at bet365, as our other best sports betting sites have slightly lower +130 odds for Taylor to end with three or more assists.
Tuesday's college basketball game picks
The O/U for the Purdue-Illinois matchup is one of the highest on Tuesday's slate, but it is likely not high enough given how prolific the two offenses have been all season.
Entering last week's action, Purdue's 126.6 and Illinois' 124.0 offensive efficiency metrics ranked in the top four of the Big Ten's most efficient offenses since 2000.
The Fighting Illini needed every bit of that efficiency to outlast Minnesota at home last Wednesday, as ESPN alum Jared Berson explained that Minnesota was just the second team to lose outright in the previous 312 instances when scoring 1.48 points per possession or greater. He added that Illinois and Minnesota combined to score 1.54 points per possession, making it the highest combined offensive efficiency of any game over the last 15 seasons.
Additionally, OptaSTATS pointed out that Minnesota was the only team in the last 25 seasons to score 95-plus points, shoot at least 70% from the 3-point line, and have five or fewer turnovers, and it still lost to Illinois.
There are mismatches all over the court, with no one on Illinois' front line built to deal with Wooden Award odds favorite Zach Edey. Meanwhile, we expect Brad Underwood to counter with a smaller lineup with Coleman Hawkins at the five-spot (Hawkins has averaged 17.1 points per game over the last eight games), pulling Edey away from the paint, which will allow guard Marcus Domask to create more with his back to the basket.
The Over is 5-1 in Purdue's six games against ranked opponents and has cashed in 15 of Illinois' 18 Big Ten games. Several of our best sports betting apps have an O/U of 164 and FanDuel is on the high end at 164.5, so we are placing this wager at any of the sportsbooks with a total of 163.5, though we would play this number up to 164.5 if needed.
Providence's game on Saturday against Villanova was billed as the prototypical “bubble game” with most bracketologists pegging the two teams to be among the “last four in” and “first four out” categories. And after the Wildcats took care of business in a 71-60 road win, the Friars are feeling the heat with their NCAA tournament hopes hanging by a thread.
Schedulemakers could not have written a better script for this game, as former Friars coach Ed Cooley can essentially put the nail in Providence's coffin if his Hoyas upset the Friars. In a game in which one team has everything to lose while the other is just out to play spoiler, we expect Georgetown to play freely and give Providence everything it can handle.
In a raucous atmosphere at Providence in the prior meeting, Georgetown covered as an 11-point underdog in an 84-76 loss, a game in which the Hoyas out-rebounded the Friars by two, committed fewer turnovers (16 to 15), and shot better from 3-point range.
The difference was Providence's dominance inside the paint, shooting a blistering 23-for-30 from 2-point range, which is something we expect Cooley will have answers for in this rematch.
Georgetown has lost the rematch to every conference opponent by more points than the first game (it even beat DePaul by less the second time of its two wins), and though much of that can be attributed to low motivation while ending a disappointing season, there should be no such issues with Cooley getting his guys motivated to play his former team.
BetRivers is the only other one of our best sportsbooks offering a line of +8 (though at -112 juice), and all other competitors offer a spread a half-point lower at +7.5. We would play the Hoyas down to +7.5, but only if we were saving some money on juice and getting less than the standard -110 price.
College basketball best bets made Tuesday at 6:44 a.m. ET
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Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)