The week starts with our first taste of conference tournament action, and we offer our top college basketball player props and best bets for Monday based on the best college basketball odds.
Monday's college basketball slate offers us a glimpse of what the next two weeks will be like as the regular season winds down and conference tournaments take over.
The ASUN has two first-round games on the docket and is balanced out with a couple of top-25 teams in action with Duke and Baylor facing league rivals.
Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Monday (college basketball picks based on odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's college basketball best bets
- Mark Mitchell Over 5.5 rebounds vs. N.C. State (-130 via bet365) ???
- Max Abmas Over 2.5 3-pointers vs. Baylor (-138 via FanDuel) ????
- Queens +4 vs. Florida Gulf Coast (-110 via bet365) ????
- Montana State +2.5 vs. Weber State (-104 via FanDuel) ????
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Monday's college basketball schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Duke vs. N.C. State | Spread: Duke -6 | Total: 148
- Jacksonville vs. Kennesaw State | Spread: Kennesaw State -3 | Total: 147.5
- Queens vs. Florida Gulf Coast | Spread: Florida Gulf Coast -4 | Total: 154
- Texas vs. Baylor | Spread: Baylor -7 | Total: 145.5
Monday's college basketball player props
Duke forward Mark Mitchell barely missed going Over this projected total on Saturday, securing just five rebounds in the win over Virginia. Mitchell has now grabbed five or fewer rebounds in four of the previous five games, but the situational spot of tonight's in-state rivalry game suggests the Over is worth the steeper juice.
Mitchell's five rebounds against Virginia extrapolate to more against N.C. State, considering the Cavaliers typically limit possessions by playing at one of the country's slowest paces. That will not be the case against the Wolfpack, who rank in the top half in the ACC in fastest tempos. Mitchell should also be in line for several offensive rebounds, as N.C. State allows the 10th-highest percentage of offensive rebounds (28.0%) in league play.
This is a three-star play, as we are speculating about Mitchell's increased playing time in this game on a short turnaround from Saturday. We expect head coach Jon Scheyer to be cautious with star forward Kyle Filipowski after playing 29 minutes at less than 100% on Saturday, especially with a big regular-season finale against North Carolina looming.
If Scheyer hints at Mitchell earning more minutes as a result, we would make this a more confident four-star wager and play this number up to 6.5.
FanDuel already offers +102 odds for Mitchell to go Over 6.5 rebounds, but we instead prefer the -130 odds at bet365 at an O/U of 5.5, while our other best sports betting sites charge slightly higher -135 odds for the same wager.
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For the latter part of the season, Scott Drew's Baylor squad has been almost exclusively switching between 1-1-3 and 1-3-1 defenses. That is a big reason why seven of the last eight opponents have attempted 19-plus 3-pointers against them, which skews the fact that Baylor still allows 3-pointers at just the sixth-highest rate in league play. However, the Bears are allowing Big 12 opponents to shoot 34.7% from beyond the arc (eighth-highest in league play), and Texas shoots at the fourth-highest clip from beyond the arc (35.7%).
Max Abmas has made seven 3-pointers in the last two games (both wins), coming off a three-game skid when he went just 2-of-15 from beyond the arc. However, two of those games were against teams ranked in the top three of the league in adjusted defensive efficiency (Kansas State and Houston).
This is a four-star play, as Abmas made three 3-pointers in the prior meeting with Baylor, and now the Bears play more exclusive zone defense, which should lend to ample opportunities for more perimeter shots.
FanDuel is our go-to shop for this wager, as our other best sports betting apps charge slightly higher -140 juice for Abmas to make three or more 3-pointers.
Monday's college basketball game picks
In its first season at the D-I level last year, Queens defeated Florida Gulf Coast 61-55 in the first round of the conference tournament. The Royals are now 3-1 in the last two years against the Eagles, and we expect a similar result (or at least a cover) to last year's conference tournament victory.
In an era when so many teams are reliant on shot creators off the dribble, Queens has one of the lowest shot rates off the dribble of any team in the country. The Royals play at the fastest tempo in league play, and that makes them a bad matchup for an Eagles squad that plays at a top-25 slowest pace in the country.
Florida Gulf Coast won three straight to end the regular season, and while Queens' only loss in the last four games was to the Eagles, the Royals still scored a respectable 1.14 points per possession and got to the free-throw line 25 times.
Queens has the highest free-throw rate in league play, and foul trouble could again be an issue for an Eagles squad that ranks outside the top 170 nationally in bench minutes.
Queens is 10-5-1 ATS in ASUN play this season, while Florida Gulf Coast has covered just one of its five conference tournament games since 2020.
While all of our best sportsbooks are in unison with a four-point spread, only bet365 is charging the standard -110 juice to back the underdogs, as Caesars is as high as -115 to grab the +4.
Recent performance should suggest Weber State is the right side in this matchup, given that it has won eight of its last nine, while Montana State is 2-6 in its last eight and has not strung together consecutive wins since late January.
However, we are buying into the “Senior Night” factor in Bozeman as the Bobcats send off their backcourt in Eddie Turner and Robert Ford, and an electric atmosphere on national television (the game is aired on ESPNU) should make all the difference in this rematch.
Weber State opened up a nine-point halftime lead in the previous meeting between these teams, then outscored the Bobcats by 13 in the second half for an easy 22-point victory. The Wildcats had their way on the backboards in the first game, out-rebounding Montana State 42-26 and assisting on 16 of 28 field goals.
However, the Bobcats played a clean game overall with just nine turnovers, and their league-best turnover rate defensively (they force a turnover on 19.2% of possessions in Big Sky play) and 3-point percentage defense (33.2% allowed) should allow them to stay close.
The Bobcats are 11-6 ATS in conference games and have covered half their games (2-2) as home underdogs, while Weber State is just 7-12 ATS as the favorite and covered just five of its 13 road games.
FanDuel is the only one of our sites with the best sportsbook promos offering odds better than -105 to grab the +2.5 points with the underdogs.
College basketball best bets made Monday at 6:39 a.m. ET
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