Three new conference tournaments begin Friday to add to what should be an exciting weekend, and we offer our top college basketball player props and best bets based on the best college basketball odds.
Thursday gave us our first taste of what's in store for the next couple of weeks in college basketball between conference tournaments and the NCAA tournament, as games started as early as 12:30 p.m. ET and went throughout the day. Friday's schedule is no different, with seven games tipping off before 6:00 pm. ET.
The Colonial, Southern, and Summit League all begin their opening round tournament games today, while the Ohio Valley tournament is already into the semifinals.
Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Friday (college basketball picks based on odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's college basketball best bets
- DaRon Holmes Over 21.5 points vs. VCU (-125 via FanDuel) ????
- Ja'Kobi Gillespie Over 23.5 PRA vs. Northern Iowa (-105 via DraftKings) ????
- Longwood-Winthrop Under 146.5 (-138 via FanDuel) ???
- San Diego State -7.5 vs. Boise State (-112 via DraftKings) ????
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Friday's college basketball schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Radford vs. High Point | Spread: High Point -11.5 | Total: 150
- VCU vs. Dayton | Spread: Dayton -8 | Total: 138
- Boise State vs. San Diego State | Spread: San Diego State -8 | Total: 137
Friday's college basketball player props
At first glance, this is an awfully curious line, especially since these two teams played to a 49-47 rock fight in the first regular-season meeting. However, despite scoring a season-low 47 points (the only other team to hold the Flyers under 60 points was Houston), Holmes scored 12, and the Rams had difficulty contending with his size, allowing 13 free-throw attempts to the Malone Award finalist.
Holmes is 11th on the Dayton all-time scoring list and has topped this projected total in four of the previous six games. He entered Thursday ranked sixth among all D-I players in player efficiency rating, and leads the A-10 in several individual metrics.
For those looking for a better price, DraftKings and bet365 offer -105 odds for Holmes to go Over 22.5 points, but the -125 price tag at FanDuel is not egregious enough to ignore the value at the lower projected total.
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Belmont point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie missed eight straight games in January, and the Bruins struggled in his absence, going just 3-5, with one of those losses coming to Northern Iowa. In the prior game against the Panthers, Gillespie scored 18 points and had six combined rebounds and assists, and his return to the lineup on Feb. 7 catapulted the team to an 8-2 finish down the stretch.
In the 10-game stretch, no Bruins player has a higher OBPR (Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating), per Evan Miyakawa, than Gillespie, and he owns the fourth-best offensive rating and assist rate of any player in the Missouri Valley Conference, per KenPom.
We expect a huge game in which Gillespie stuffs the stat sheet, as head coach Casey Alexander will likely have the ball in his best player's hands more often with the season on the line.
All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with the O/U on Gillespie's point total at 16.5, and we would advise backing the Over there if you can't bet on his PRA combo.
Friday's college basketball game picks
There is arguably no better rivalry in the Big South Conference than the Longwood-Winthrop rivalry, and this is one of the more exciting opening-round matchups from a one-bid league that one will find.
Longwood was close to sweeping both regular-season meetings against Winthrop this year, but the Lancers blew an 11-point second-half lead in the first meeting and eventually lost in overtime.
Even though the two rivals played five extra minutes, the first meeting featured just 128 combined points, and the game easily stayed Under the projected total of 142.5. Both teams made adjustments in the rematch, as an 84-74 Longwood victory smashed the O/U of 143.5. The Lancers shot 47.6% from 3-point range and scored 1.20 points per possession in that game. However, with each team's season on the line in the rubber match, we expect much more of a rock fight.
Longwood's propensity to trap ball screens has been a major issue for Winthrop, as the Eagles have turned the ball over at a 21% rate or higher in each of the previous six meetings between the teams.
We also expect the Eagles to use arguably the league's best overall defender, Chase Claxton, to guard Longwood's second-leading scorer, Michael Christmas (11.5 points per game) on a more consistent basis. Christmas has scored 41 combined points in the two meetings between the teams this year, but Winthrop's second-ranked defense in league play in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency should have the answers in this rubber match.
The Under is 4-2-1 in Winthrop's conference tournament games since 2020, and we expect it to be the right side of the total despite Longwood's 5-1 record to the Over in six neutral-site games in that span.
These are unusually steep odds to pay for a total, but given that FanDuel's total is a full two points higher than some of our other best sports betting apps' O/U of 144.5, it is worth the extra juice. We would play this number down to 145.
San Diego State and Boise State are both top-five teams in the Mountain West, and each is coming off losses in their last games, though Boise State's 10-point home loss to Nevada is more concerning than San Diego State's four-point road loss at UNLV.
The Aztecs entered their game against UNLV tied with the Runnin' Rebels as the league's best defenses since February. Thus, we are giving San Diego State a pass for its 7-for-31 (22.6%) shooting performance from inside the arc in that game, as it still managed a respectable 0.97 points per possession all things considered.
San Diego State played a clean game from a turnover standpoint (eight turnovers committed) against a defense that turns opponents over at the third-highest rate in the league. We expect head coach Brian Dutcher to have answers if the Broncos double the post as often as UNLV did, given that the Aztecs shoot the third-highest percentage from 2-point range (53.2%) of any Mountain West team.
Boise State is a vulnerable team defensively off the ball, and it allowed Nevada to score 1.10 points per possession despite the Wolf Pack's best player, Kenan Blackshear, being limited to just 23 minutes following a two-game absence.
San Diego State is 8-4 ATS as home favorites and has covered 60% of its games (15 of 25) after a loss since 2020. We expect the Aztecs to have the edge over a Boise State team that is 1-2 ATS in its previous three games against ranked opponents.
This spread has shot up at our best sportsbooks from an opening number of -6.5 overnight, but this is still a play at the inflated number. Caesars and bet365 have already moved to -8, so we are grabbing any 7.5 while it lasts.
College basketball best bets made Friday at 6:46 a.m. ET
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