All conference tournaments are either completed or are underway entering Thursday, and we offer our top college basketball player props and best bets for Thursday based on the best college basketball odds.
While no conference tournament has a championship game scheduled for Thursday, this gives us time to reflect on the accomplishments of several schools that have already punched their tickets.
Stetson earned its first-ever NCAA Tournament berth, James Madison earned its first automatic bid in over a decade, Oakland returns to the “Big Dance” for the first time since 2011, and Wagner will appear in March Madness for the first time since 2003. All will be long shots by the March Madness odds.
The automatic bids have not just come from one-bid leagues, as Tuesday night had an intense West Coast Conference final between two ranked programs in Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. Those two have been fixtures in the WCC Championship, as it was their 14th meeting in a conference championship. That tied Duke and North Carolina out of the ACC for the most in Division I.
Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Thursday (college basketball picks based on odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's college basketball best bets
- Cameron Matthews Over 9.5 points vs. LSU (-115 via bet365) ???
- Jaedon LeDee Over 7.5 rebounds vs. UNLV (-105 via DraftKings) ????
- St. John's -4 vs. Seton Hall (-108 via DraftKings) ???
- Liberty-UTEP Under 134.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ????
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Thursday's college basketball schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Xavier vs. UConn | Spread: UConn -15.5 | Total: 149.5
- Florida State vs. North Carolina | Spread: North Carolina -10.5 | Total: 154.5
- BYU vs. Texas Tech | Spread: BYU -2 | Total: 154
- TCU vs. Houston | Spread: Houston -10 | Total: 137.5
- USC vs. Arizona | Spread: Arizona -8.5 | Total: 157
- Villanova vs. Marquette | Spread: Marquette -4.5 | Total: 143
See our Florida State vs. North Carolina prediction and TCU vs. Houston prediction for more on Thursday's action.
Thursday's college basketball player props
Mississippi State forward Cameron Matthews has come on strong recently, averaging 15 points per game over the last two games, following a streak of three straight games in single digits. Matthews has become much more of a focal point in the offense, as his 13 and eight shot attempts in the last two games are his two highest totals since the calendar turned to February.
Matthews attempted just four shots in an eight-point effort in a win against LSU this season, but we expect him to expose a Tigers defense that is much more vulnerable inside than on the perimeter, as they have allowed the sixth-highest 2-point percentage in league play.
DraftKings and bet365 offer the same -115 juice for this wager, meaning a $10 wager would pay out $18.70 ($8.70 in profit).
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LeDee has been a rebounding machine for San Diego State, totaling six-plus rebounds in four straight games, and going over this projected total in two of them. He bullied UNLV on the glass in their two regular-season meetings, securing six offensive boards in their latest meeting and pulling down 11 total rebounds in the first matchup.
The fact LeDee has 10 offensive rebounds in two games against UNLV raises his ceiling for rebounds considerably. He should again be a menace on the offensive backboards against a UNLV team that ranks 284th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage allowed (31.2%).
bet365 has this wager juiced slightly more to the Over at -110, so we are getting a bit better return by making this wager at DraftKings.
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Thursday's college basketball game picks
There will be an intense atmosphere in the afternoon at the Big East Tournament. The two schools most local to New York City and Madison Square Garden battle in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup when Seton Hall faces St. John's.
The Pirates' two-game winning streak to end the regular season, which included a huge victory in a bubble game against Villanova, has them likely safe in the NCAA Tournament field no matter the result of this game. Conversely, St. John's will likely be playing with a sense of desperation needing a victory to feel safer come Selection Sunday. We expect that to be the difference in this contest.
Seton Hall won both regular-season meetings by a combined 21 points, but ever since St. John's head coach Rick Pitino ripped his team publicly and called this season “the most unenjoyable experience of my lifetime”, his team responded with five straight wins to end the regular season. One of them was a comfortable 80-66 win over then-No. 15 Creighton.
In that span, the Red Storm ranks 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik. And while their defense still lags at 82nd in adjusted defensive efficiency during the winning streak, Seton Hall's offense is no juggernaut. Most concerning for the Pirates is their inability to take care of the basketball, as they turn the ball over at the second-highest rate in Big East play. St. John's turns opponents over at an 18% rate (second-highest in league games).
St. John's is 11-7 ATS after a win this season, while Seton Hall has covered just seven of 16 games as an underdog. Though this is considered a neutral site, MSG is a St. John's home venue, and the partisan crowd will likely buoy it to an important victory.
FanDuel is the only one of our best spor ts betting sites offering a line of -4.5, and DraftKings is the only one at -4 that also charges less than the standard -110 juice to back the favorites.
Liberty and UTEP's two regular-season meetings had O/Us of 136 and 136.5, respectively, and both played to the Under. Flames head coach Ritchie McKay, in particular, is adept at adjusting against familiar opponents, and his defenses rarely allow open catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Liberty's 320th-ranked tempo consistently grinds games to a halt, and operating in the half-court is difficult against a Flames defense that ranks in the top 15 nationally in assist rate allowed. Liberty also runs teams off the 3-point line at the second-highest rate in CUSA play, while UTEP is the league's best defense in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, turnover rate forced (27.1%) and 3-point percentage allowed.
The fact that the Miners allow opponents to shoot a league-low 32.2% from beyond the arc is vital against a Liberty offense that ranks 13th nationally in percentage of its points coming from the 3-point line (39.5%). The Flames shot a combined 32.6% (15-for-46) from beyond the arc in the two regular-season meetings.
The line has shaded toward the Under overnight as most of our best sports betting apps opened with a total of 135.5, but this is still a play at 134.5, though we would pass on all the shops that went to 134 early Thursday morning like bet365 and BetRivers.
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College basketball best bets made Thursday at 6:41 a.m. ET
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