Three of the top four teams in the country are in action on a loaded Thursday college basketball slate. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Thursday based on the top NCAAB odds.
Before Wednesday, the last time the No. 1 team in the country was an underdog, the Purdue Boilermakers lost to the Indiana Hoosiers. On Wednesday, the Alabama Crimson Tide lost to the Tennessee Volunteers as underdogs, suggesting that there is not only a lot of parity in college basketball this year, but that oddsmakers know a thing or two when making their lines.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Thursday (odds via BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our top college basketball picks and our best March Madness betting sites.
Thursday's college basketball schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Purdue (-2) vs. Maryland
- Ohio State vs. Iowa (-8)
- Gonzaga (-8) vs. Loyola Marymount
- Colorado vs. Arizona State (-3)
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
College basketball best bets for Thursday
- Spread: Gonzaga -7.5 (-110 via PointsBet) vs. Loyola Marymount ????
- Moneyline Parlay: Iowa ML vs. Ohio State + Arizona ML vs. Utah (-196 via DraftKings) ???
- Total: UCF-Memphis Over 148.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ???
- Upset: Middle Tennessee (+175 via PointsBet) vs. Florida Atlantic ???
College basketball top picks
Gonzaga has not had to “get up” for West Coast Conference games outside of Saint Mary's and BYU lately, but this is a big revenge spot for the Bulldogs, as Loyola Marymount ended their 75-game home winning streak earlier this season. Gonzaga has lost twice in the same season to a conference opponent just once since 2012 (lost twice to Saint Mary's in 2016), so we feel confident in head coach Mark Few's abilities to devise a game plan to avoid another upset.
Though the Lions have been giant killers this season with wins over Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, they have lost three of their last four, and their defense has been exposed in that stretch.
In recent losses to BYU, San Diego, and Santa Clara, the Lions allowed those opponents to shoot a combined 23-of-50 (46%) from 3-point range and surrendered 1.28 points per possession or more in two of those losses. Thus, a Gonzaga offense that ranks second nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom) is licking its chops to get right in this rematch.
PointsBet is the only sportsbook offering a line of -7.5 at standard juice.
Individually, Iowa's and Arizona's Moneyline odds are not too appealing but provide much more value when combined as a parlay. The Hawkeyes and Wildcats are a combined 25-3 at home this season and face opponents with a combined 5-11 road record.
Ohio State is in absolute freefall, losing 11 of its last 12 games, with its low point coming last contest when it scored a season-low 41 points in its biggest margin of deficit (21 points at home to Michigan State).
Meanwhile, Arizona has had five days to get right after a stunning road loss at Stanford. The Wildcats are 6-5 against the spread with four-plus days off and face a Utah team that has covered just one of three games against ranked opponents.
When these two teams met in Orlando earlier this season, they combined for 211 points in a double-overtime thriller, with 156 of those points scored in regulation.
Memphis' offense has been sizzling since then, scoring at least 80 points in six of the eight games and averaging 88 points per contest over the last seven.
Meanwhile, UCF's methodical tempo (321st-slowest per KenPom) has not been enough to slow down opposing offenses, as the Knights have allowed 78.8 points per game in their last five losses (all within the last seven games). In addition, UCF's defense ranks eighth or worse in league play in offensive rebounding percentage allowed (31.1%), 2-point percentage allowed (51.1%), and free throws attempted per field-goal attempts, which are all areas we expect Memphis's offense to exploit.
Florida Atlantic has built a resume worthy of an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament even if it does not win the C-USA tournament with a 24-2 record and No. 19 NET ranking. However, if we are nitpicking, 17 of the Owls' 24 wins have come against Quad 3 and 4 opponents.
Middle Tennessee has allowed the highest percentage of opponents' points in league play from inside the arc, but we expect the Blue Raiders to play a more compact style of defense Thursday.
The Blue Raiders have won six of their last seven home games, and an offense that ranks first in effective field-goal percentage and 3-point shooting (39.0%) in league play is capable of a home upset with another efficient shooting night.
Middle Tennessee is 6-3 ATS at home this year, but we are opting for the better value with its ML odds at PointsBet, which offers a number 15 units higher than the consensus +160 opening line.
College basketball best bets made 2/16/2023 at 6:18 a.m. ET.
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- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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