In addition to the excitement of a loaded Saturday college basketball slate, the D-I Men's Basketball Committee announces its top 16 NCAA tournament seeds. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Saturday based on the top NCAAB odds.
The in-season top-16 reveal has happened annually since 2017. From a historical perspective, 15 teams over the five reveals have moved into the top 16 after initially being left out, though they have yet to rise to a No. 1 or 2 seed. Of the 15, two (2018 Michigan, 2019 Texas Tech) have made the national championship game, but neither has won it all.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our top college basketball picks and our best March Madness betting sites.
Saturday's college basketball schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Baylor vs. Kansas (-5.5)
- Tennessee (-1.5) vs. Kentucky
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State (-3)
- Illinois vs. Indiana (-6.5)
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
College basketball best bets for Saturday
- Spread: St. John's +7.5 (-114 via FanDuel) vs. Creighton ????
- Moneyline Parlay: Providence ML vs. Villanova + Texas ML vs. Oklahoma (-116 via DraftKings) ???
- Total: Auburn-Vanderbilt Under 145 (-110 via WynnBet) ????
- Upset: Texas A&M (+122 via Caesars) vs. Missouri ???
College basketball top picks
Creighton has one of the most balanced scoring lineups in the country, with four starters (Ryan Nembhard, Arthur Kaluma, Baylor Scheierman, and Ryan Kalkbrenner) each having led the team in scoring at least five times. However, all five starters played 45-plus minutes in a double-overtime war against Providence, and the Bluejays got only four combined points in 15 minutes from three players off the bench. Creighton entered the Providence game with the eighth-fewest bench points per game in the country (11.3), and the last team that anyone should want to face following a grueling double-overtime loss is St. John's, which plays at the third-fastest tempo in the country.
This is a solid four-star play, even though Creighton's biggest league win is against St. John's (28 points on Jan. 25). But the Bluejays had eight days to prepare for that game, and this rematch's circumstances are much different.
We do not mind paying the extra juice at Fanduel for +7.5 points, as most other sportsbooks are at +7.
Providence is 14-0 at home this season and has won 35 of its last 36 home games. In addition, the Friars are 73-31 in games decided by five or fewer points under Ed Cooley since 2013-14. Providence is also 25-19 ATS as a home favorite since 2019, and it faces a Villanova team that is 2-5 on the road in Big East play. The Wildcats have lost their three road games against the teams ahead of them in the league standings by a combined 22 points, which has us liking the Friars' chances of winning outright.
Texas is 14-1 at home, and no player is used on possessions more than 24% of the time. Conversely, Oklahoma point guard Grant Sherfield is a one-man show in Norman, ranking 188th nationally in percentage of possessions used. Thus, a Sooners offense that ranks dead last in Big 12 play in adjusted offensive efficiency, turnover percentage (21.1%), and offensive-rebounding percentage (25.7%) needs more firepower to pull a road upset of a top-six team.
The Over is 7-2 in Auburn's nine road games and 5-1 when the Tigers are road favorites. However, the Under is 8-6 in Vanderbilt's 14 home games as opposed to 2-7 in its nine road games. The odd court dimensions have something to do with that, especially as opposing teams struggle to get communication from their coach with the benches under the basket.
Since surrendering 101 points in a road loss to Alabama, Vanderbilt has allowed 70 points per game during a four-game winning streak. This is a four-star play, as the Commodores' defense will make Auburn work for everything it gets, especially since it allows the second-lowest free-throw rate in SEC play.
The Aggies are playing their best basketball of the season, with their only loss since Jan. 25 an excusable one at Bud Walton Arena against Arkansas. And though Missouri has lost just once at home in league play (to the No. 1 team in the country, Alabama), there is something concerning about its last five losses coming by a combined 92 points.
Missouri's offense is basic in the sense that it wants to spread the court and attack defensive mismatches one-on-one. However, Buzz Williams' defense stifled that plan in their first meeting this season, packing the paint and forcing the Tigers to shoot more 3-pointers (31) than they were accustomed to. More of those perimeter shots may fall at home, but it is still concerning that the Aggies won comfortably by 18 points despite committing 18 turnovers.
College basketball best bets made 2/18/2023 at 6:52 a.m. ET.
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
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