The second-last Saturday of the college basketball regular season is loaded with many of the sport's best rivalries. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Saturday based on the top NCAAB odds.
Saint Mary's is one win away from its first outright West Coast Conference regular-season title since 2011-12 as it heads to “The Kennel” to face Gonzaga. Elsewhere, two of Texas' best rivalries take place today as Texas Tech hosts TCU and Baylor hosts Texas.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Saturday's college basketball schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Texas vs. Baylor (-4)
- Saint Mary's vs. Gonzaga (-5)
- San Diego State (-2.5) vs. New Mexico
- Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State (-3)
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
College basketball best bets for Saturday
- Spread: Iowa -5.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Michigan State ????
- Moneyline: San Diego State ML vs. New Mexico (-135 via DraftKings) ????
- Total: Saint Mary's-Gonzaga Over 140 (-110 via Caesars) ????
- Upset: Kansas State (+130 via Caesars) vs. Oklahoma State ???
College basketball top picks
Michigan State played inspired basketball in its first home game since the tragic shooting on campus, routing Indiana by 15. However, a road game is a different story, especially in the Big Ten and especially for the Spartans, who have lost four of five away from the Breslin Center.
Things do not get any easier for Michigan State as it takes on an Iowa team that has not lost at home since Dec. 21. In those seven consecutive wins, the Hawkeyes have averaged 88.1 points per game and scored at least 81 points in each. That is a big reason Iowa is 12-3 against the spread as a home favorite, making this a solid four-star play.
San Diego State looks for revenge for an earlier 76-67 home loss to New Mexico, which ended a three-game winning streak in the series. The Aztecs' seventh-ranked 3-point defense (28.6% allowed) was on full display in that game, holding the Mountain West's best 3-point shooting team to just 33.3% (6-for-18).
However, the Aggies' backcourt tandem of Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn torched the Aztecs for 51 combined points on 15-of-28 shooting inside the arc. Look for San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher to switch up his ball screen coverage in this game, either making the duo beat it from the perimeter (they combined to shoot 4-of-12 from 3-point range) or funnel them to the rim where the WCC's second-best shot blocker, Nathan Mensah (1.6 blocks per game), awaits.
This is a four-star play as San Diego State is 9-5 ATS in conference games, while New Mexico is 5-9-1 ATS against league competition.
These two teams combined for 148 points in an overtime thriller in their first meeting but just 122 points in regulation. Saint Mary's masterfully controlled tempo for the first 40 minutes, limiting possessions and out-rebounding the Bulldogs by seven overall.
However, controlling tempo (the Gaels play at D-I's 359th slowest adjusted tempo) is not as easy on the road, especially at a charged-up “Kennel.” In addition, their bottom-five adjusted tempo does not effectively slow most teams down, as the Gaels rank just 156th comparatively in average defensive possession length.
Gonzaga has been on fire offensively, averaging 94.8 points in its last eight non-Saint Mary's games. And this becomes a more confident four-star play when recognizing that the Over is a combined 11-2 when these two teams have just one day off, as they do tonight, having last played on Thursday.
Over backers should head to Caesars, the only sportsbook with a total lower than the opening number of 140.5.
Kansas State is amid its worst stretch of basketball away from home all season, losing five consecutive league road games, four of which were by eight-plus points. However, Oklahoma State has also lost three straight games, and its once-vaunted defense, which still ranks 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, has been leaky lately.
The Cowboys have allowed an average of 90.7 points per game during their losing streak, and two of those three opponents (Kansas and TCU) shot better than 62% from inside the arc. The Wildcats get only 28% of their scoring in league play from 3-point range (seventh-fewest in the Big 12), so we expect the penetrating ability of guards Markquis Nowell and Desi Sills to put pressure on Oklahoma State's suddenly vulnerable interior defense.
College basketball best bets made 2/25/2023 at 6:17 a.m. ET.
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