A 19-game slate kicks off the week with a special President's Day edition of college basketball. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Monday based on the top NCAAB odds.
The most high-profile game of the day (and the only one between two ranked opponents) is between Kansas and TCU. The Jayhawks are looking to avenge an earlier 23-point home loss to the Horned Frogs, the second-worst home loss in the Bill Self era.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Monday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our top college basketball picks and our best March Madness betting sites.
Monday's college basketball schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Kansas vs. TCU (-2)
- Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia (-5)
- Cal State Fullerton vs. UC Santa Barbara (-5.5)
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
College basketball best bets for Monday
- Spread: Minnesota +15.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Illinois ???
- Moneyline: Howard ML vs. Morgan State (-165 via DraftKings) ?????
- Total: Kansas-TCU Over 149.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ????
- Upset: North Carolina Central (+100 via Caesars) vs. Maryland Eastern Shore ???
College basketball top picks
This game deserves a big spread, considering Illinois' last five home league wins have been decided by at least nine points, and Minnesota is amid a nine-game losing streak with four of its last five games decided by at least 12 points.
However, we expect the Fighting Illini to have difficulty recovering from blowing a nine-point second-half lead at Indiana on Saturday. They will also be looking ahead to a home date with a likely NCAA tournament-bound Northwestern team on Thursday.
The Golden Gophers rank dead-last in Big Ten play in adjusted defensive efficiency, turnover percentage forced (12.8%), and 3-point percentage allowed (39.9%). However, we do not expect Illinois to capitalize enough on those weaknesses to cover such a big spread, considering it ranks eighth, eighth, and 13th, respectively, in those categories offensively.
Howard has won nine consecutive games, which is the fifth-longest active winning streak in the country. We are making this a confident five-star selection, as one of those wins was a 32-point home victory over Morgan State on Jan. 21, when it held the Bears to 0.71 points per possession.
Morgan State could not get anything going offensively in that game, with just six assists on 22 made field goals (37.3% shooting from the field) to go along with 22 turnovers. The Bears rank dead-last in the MEAC in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, and 2-point shooting (42.9%). That will not get it done against a Bison defense that is susceptible inside but allows opponents the second-fewest percentage of their points from the perimeter (26.8%).
Editor's note: This line has experienced a lot of movement since the pick was made and now sits at -285 at DraftKings.
Saturday's 100-point outburst against a solid Oklahoma State defense was the first time TCU had a healthy Mike Miles (17.9 points per game) and Eddie Lampkin (6.6 points) since their Jan. 21 road rout of Kansas. Jayhawks head coach Self lauded the Horned Frogs' overall team speed.
In that game, TCU shot 8-for-15 from 3-point range (53.3%), and Kansas does not figure to do any better defensively on the road on a short turnaround. However, the Jayhawks should capitalize on the momentum of scoring 55 second-half points against Baylor and 1.30 points per possession despite shooting just 28.6% (6-of-21) from beyond the arc.
This is a solid four-star play, as the Over is 12-9 following a Kansas win and has cashed in nine of TCU's 15 home games.
North Carolina Central's three-game winning streak came against teams in the bottom half of the MEAC. Still, its 61-point combined margin of victory should have it brimming with confidence entering a rematch with Maryland Eastern Shore.
The Eagles lost by one at home to the Hawks after blowing a 16-point second-half lead (with less than 12 minutes to play). However, they should be more equipped to handle the pressure after committing 24 turnovers and have positive regression from beyond the arc (they shot 2-of-15 themselves). The combination of the Eagles' No. 1 ranked adjusted defensive efficiency and slowest tempo in league play should limit the Eagles' second-ranked offense (76.7 points per game).
We are backing the +100 odds at Caesars, as the Eagles are as high as -105 at BetRivers.
College basketball best bets made 2/19/2023 at 8:35 p.m. ET.
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- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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