Three more conference tournaments begin today, adding excitement to the college basketball slate entering the weekend. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Friday based on the top NCAAB odds.
The Colonial, Southern, and Summit League Championships begin today, while the Ohio Valley Conference determines who will play for the league's automatic bid with two semifinal matchups tonight.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Friday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our top college basketball picks and our best March Madness betting sites.
Friday's college basketball schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- New Mexico (-2) vs. Colorado State
- Dayton (-1) vs. Saint Louis
- Toledo (-4) vs. Ball State
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
College basketball best bets for Friday
- Spread: Denver -1 (-108 via BetRivers) vs. North Dakota ???
- Moneyline: New Mexico (-130 via DraftKings) vs. Colorado State ????
- Total: Dayton-Saint Louis Over 137 (-115 via DraftKings) ???
- Upset: Ball State (+152 via Caesars) vs. Toledo ???
College basketball top picks
No Summit League team loves to run “pick and roll” more than Denver, as the Pioneers nearly matched last year's 15th-highest pick-and-roll rate and 3rd-highest ball screen rate, per Synergy.
Considering North Dakota graded better than only St. Thomas among Summit League teams in defending pick-and-roll action last year, Denver has a path to offensive success.
This might be a four-or-five-star play if Tyree Corbett (10.1 points, 8.3 rebounds) were healthy. However, the team has had over a month to prepare without him, and we expect a Denver team that gets to the free-throw line at the league's highest rate to wear down the Fighting Hawks and test their depth.
After getting off to a blistering 18-2 start, New Mexico has lost seven of its last 10. The Lobos were without second-leading scorer Jaelen House (17.0 points per game) for two of those losses, but his offensive rating has improved in each of the four games since returning from a hamstring injury. New Mexico has played better than its 2-2 record in that stretch would indicate. The Lobos' two losses were to the Mountain West's top two teams (San Diego State and Boise State) by a combined seven points, and the loss to the Aztecs was on a buzzer-beating 3-point shot.
The Lobos are coming off a 94-point outburst and 1.31 points per possession effort against Fresno State. Thus, this is a solid four-star play, as Colorado State is the league's worst defense in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field =goal percentage.
New Mexico is much better as an away underdog (5-1-1 against the spread) than a road favorite (0-3 ATS), but we still expect it to win outright against a Rams team that has not won consecutive games against D-I opponents since Nov. 30.
Saint Louis scored 67 points on the A-10's top-ranked defense (per KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric), a spectacular feat as VCU had held 13 consecutive opponents to 65 or fewer points. The game against the Rams was good preparation for a Dayton defense that ranks second in adjusted defensive efficiency in league play and is the A-10's No. 1 scoring defense (60.7 points per game allowed) and field-goal percentage defense (39.1% allowed).
The Billikens managed just 56 points in the Feb. 10 road meeting at Dayton, but these two teams still rank in the top three in the league in field-goal percentage.
This is a three-star play, as Saint Louis has averaged 81.3 points during a four-game home winning streak, and we expect it to speed up a Dayton team that ranks dead-last among all A-10 teams in average offensive and defensive possession length.
Consider this a contrarian play, as Dayton is the league's most profitable Under team (11-19 O/U record), cashing it in 11 of 17 conference games. We do not mind paying the slight extra juice at DraftKings, the only sportsbook offering a total of 137 compared to 137.5.
After Eastern Washington lost to Idaho State last Saturday, it handed the title of the nation's longest winning streak to Toledo, as the Rockets have won 14 straight. However, before the winning streak, Toledo had lost two of three games, one of which was a seven-point home loss to Ball State.
The Cardinals used their size and toughness to punish the Rockets on the glass (out-rebounded them 41-21) and scored 1.32 points per possession despite not getting much offensively from center Payton Sparks (eight points), the 22nd-leading scorer in the MAC.
Toledo head coach Tod Kowalczyk can create mismatches on the defensive end by opting for a “five out” style, which would take advantage of the Cardinals' last-ranked 3-point defense (38.8%) in MAC play. But Ball State's ability to dominate the backboards is too much to ignore.
The Cardinals enter on a two-game losing streak but are 12-1 at home, and their 8-1 ATS following a loss has us confident they will win outright.
College basketball best bets made 3/3/2023 at 6:15 a.m. ET.
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