The No. 9 Clemson Tigers play a standalone game on Labor Day Monday against their ACC rivals, the Duke Blue Devils, and we make our top Clemson vs. Duke prediction based on the best college football odds.
Neither Clemson nor Alabama are the favorites heading into the regular season for the first time in eight years. However, the Tigers won their seventh ACC championship in the last eight years, though they missed the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive year after making it each of six years prior.
Duke won nine games a year ago for the first time since doing it in back-to-back seasons in 2013 and 2014. The Blue Devils also clinched a bowl game, a 30-13 victory over UCF in the Military Bowl, for the first time since 2018.
Clemson won 10 of the last 11 head-to-head meetings, but this is its first time traveling to Duke since 2012. A win would be head coach Dabo Swinney's 100th in regular-season ACC play.
Here is our best Clemson vs. Duke prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites]; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Clemson vs. Duke prediction: Week 1
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In Swinney's press conference Thursday, he pointed out that the school won 27 conference championships, and those teams typically took care of business in the season opener, going 24-2-1. That's a pretty solid trend for our college football Week 1 predictions, but let's dive deeper.
Swinney understands he's opposing reigning ACC Coach of the Year, Mike Elko, and dangerous quarterback Riley Leonard, who last year became the first Duke player ever with at least 15 passing touchdowns and 10-plus rushing TDs a season. In addition, Leonard is one of two returning players (QB Bo Nix the other) who passed for 20-plus TDs and ran for at least 13 a year ago.
Clemson may only measure its success by trips to the CFP lately, but an 11-win season is one most teams would beg for, and the Tigers did it while having quarterback questions all year. The underperforming D.J. Uiagalelei is now at Oregon State, and Cade Klubnik has the offense all to himself. Klubnik was the ACC Championship Game MVP with an 83.3% completion percentage, 279 yards passing, and a 1-0 TD-INT ratio, relieving struggling Uiagalelei.
The Tigers return 69% of their total production (64% on offense, 75% on defense). Expect new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to raise Klubnik's ceiling considerably after helping guide TCU to the national title game last season with a QB (Max Duggan) who wasn't even the starter to begin the year.
Clemson dropped from first to 25th in defensive SP+ last season, but a lot of that was because of a youthful secondary made up of sophomores who are now seasoned veterans. While Leonard finished fourth in the conference in QBR (73.7) and third in total offensive yards, he was also the team's leading rusher. But that lack of a balanced rushing attack among running backs will let Clemson's defense focus more on him.
Take Clemson against the spread with your college football best bets for Week 1.
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Clemson vs. Duke best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -13 | -12.5 | -13 | -13 | -13 |
| (-110) | (-110) | (-110) | (-110) | (-110) |
13 points is not as much of a key number as 14 , but it's still a common margin of victory, which makes the half-point difference at FanDuel much more enticing. We would have laid the extra juice since we're getting an extra half-point of insurance, but FanDuel charging the standard -110 juice at a lower number is a bonus.
Clemson vs. Duke odds
Clemson vs. Duke odds analysis
Interestingly, FD currently has the lowest spread among our best sports betting apps, but was also the only shop to touch a high of -13.5 earlier in the week before Duke backers drove the number down. Comparatively, DraftKings opened at -12.5 before rising to -13. Wagers are nearly 2/1 (64/36) in favor of the Tigers.
All of our best sports betting sites agree with the total of 55.5, while BetRivers is the only one slightly higher at 56. From a moneyline perspective, Clemson ranges from -450 at BetMGM to -485 at DraftKings. Duke is 10-64-1 all-time against AP top-10 opponents, with its last win coming against then-No. 7 Clemson in 1989, per the Associated Press.
Clemson vs. Duke game info
- When: Monday, Sept. 4, 2023, 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 69 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, 4-mph WSW wind
Clemson vs. Duke prediction made Friday, Sept. 1 at 6:46 a.m. ET.
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