The Los Angeles Chargers visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Oct. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this Week 7 matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-120).
The Chargers vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.
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Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 7 game with 72.8% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 54.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chargers and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this Week 7 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 77% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.70 Units / 51% ROI)
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 73% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 away games (+10.25 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 11 away games (+8.90 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.85 Units / 32% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+6.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.35 Units / 19% ROI)
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers went 2-3 (-1.4 Units / -25% ROI).
- Chargers are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.05 Units / -25.47% ROI
- Chargers are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Chargers are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs went 4-2 (+1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Chiefs are 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 12.75% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Chiefs are 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 30% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .695.
The Chargers are 2-3 (.400) this season — tied for 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers are 8-1 (.889) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .589.
The Chargers are 4-5 (.444) when not forcing a turnover since the 2021 season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .273.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs are undefeated (9-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .551.
The Chiefs are 8-1 (.889) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2022 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed an average of 136.4 rushing yards per game since the 2022 season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs are 16-7 (.696) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .286.