The Tampa Bay Buccaneers begin life without Tom Brady in 2023 and our best NFL betting sites are setting expectations rather low. We'll look at what may be in store from the NFL odds with our 2023 Buccaneers betting preview.
The New England Patriots went just 7-9 and missed the playoffs in their first season without Tom Brady in 2020. Based on the projected NFL win total for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that same fate may be in store in 2023.
Our 2023 Buccaneers betting preview will dissect that win total and where the Buccaneers may finish within the NFC South this season, along with our favorite team and player prop bet futures for 2023.
Check out our 2023 Buccaneers betting preview based on the odds from our
best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Buccaneers betting preview 2023
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| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over: +120 | Over: +116 | Over: +110 | Over: +120 | Over: +125 ?? |
| Under: -140 | Under: -142 | Under: -132 ?? | Under: -140 | Under: -160 |
The Buccaneers were dealt a poor hand by the NFL schedule makers. While the rival New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers have three of the four easiest strengths of schedule this season, according to Sharp Football Analysis, the Buccaneers rank 17th in terms of the anticipated ease of their schedule. They're thus projected for 6.3 wins.
And Tampa Bay heads into that formidable schedule with a 180-degree change at the most important position.
Gone is a future Hall of Famer in Tom Brady. In is a former No. 1 draft pick in Baker Mayfield, who finds himself on his third team since this time last year, and 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask. “Apples to oranges” doesn't do the turnover justice.
Yet, the Bucs should have enough consistency through the rest of the roster to ease the transition for Mayfield (or Trask), especially on defense. Tampa Bay still ranked in the better half of the league in Football Outsiders' DVOA and in opponent yards per play allowed. That defense was bolstered through the draft with first-round defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and third-round linebacker Yaya Diaby.
All four teams in the lowly NFC South won at least seven games last season with the Bucs winning the division at 8-9. I like PointsBet's outlier price of +125 in our contrarian pick of Buccaneers Over 6.5 wins in 2023.
| Market | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +8000 | +7500 | +15000 | +8000 | +15000 ?? |
| To win NFC | +4500 | +4000 | +6000 | +4000 | +7500 ?? |
| To win NFC South | +800 | +700 | +750 | +800 | +800 |
Before getting too optimistic and rushing out to bet the Bucs' +15000 Super Bowl odds from PointsBet, please note that price represents less than a percent less of a difference in implied probability from the +7500 odds via FanDuel. The Buccaneers' +800 odds to win the division from most of our best sportsbooks are double those of the Panthers, who sit third on the condensed oddsboard.
The Bucs are trading at -110 odds as the favorites to finish fourth in the NFC South. Only four other teams have minus-money odds to finish last in their respective division this season. While the NFC South was wholly unimpressive in 2022, it was tight. Just like we only need one or two coin flips to go our way for the Bucs to cash the Over on 6.5 projected wins, we need only a break or two for them to finish above the Saints, Falcons, or, most likely, the Panthers.
The Buccaneers went 4-2 in the NFC South last season, including a series sweep against the Saints. Sure, the dropoff from Brady to the 2023 QB room in Tampa Bay will be dramatic, but coaching generally helps teams most with division games.
The Bucs' QB change is also being overrated when it comes to their division. All four teams have a different Week 1 starter than they trotted out last season. Mayfield will be the second-most experienced signal-caller in that group and the receiving duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin could, legitimately, be the best he's worked with during his career.
This is where the pessimism around the Buccaneers – and Mayfield – has gone too far.
Evans has never had a sub-1,000-yard season in his career. Last season, with a lesser form of Brady than what many want to choose to remember, he had 1,124 receiving yards in just 15 games.
There's a long history around the NFL of inferior quarterbacks relying more heavily on their clear-cut No. 1 option in the passing game. What Evans may lose in catch rate (63.1% over three seasons with Brady), he should make up in targets after averaging a modest (for him) 117 per season with the GOAT.
Finally, there's this pricing from BetMGM with even -110 odds on either side of the line of 924.5. Caesars has Evans' receiving total set at 925.5 with juiced -130 odds on the Over. Our Neil Parker likes Chris Godwin to go Over 800.5 yards in his look at the best NFL receiving props for 2023, but I'll lean on Evans and expect Mayfield to do the same.
Excuse the low odds on this pick, but the five-star confidence rating should speak for itself.
Not only did Dean share the Bucs' team lead with two picks last season (his third season in four years since bei ng drafted with that number), but he'll also reap the benefits of what's expected to be lousy QB play within his division in 2023.
Bryce Young is a rookie. Desmond Ridder is a sophomore who played four games in 2022. Derek Carr tossed 14 interceptions in 15 games with the Las Vegas Raiders before being shut down early due to poor play.
The Bucs are also likely to play two other rookie QBs when facing the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts. Add Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, Jared Goff, and Josh Allen, and Dean will be able to collect his share of 46 interceptions that were thrown last season by that group. And he'll also face Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love in what will be his first season of meaningful playing time.
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