The Atlanta Braves (+155) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Friday, March 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in West Palm Beach.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Braves vs Astros Over/Under is 12.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Braves are 2-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 2-2 ATS.
Braves vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Braves vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- David Hensley has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Korey Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.95 Units / 37% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 57 away games (+12.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 2-3 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -29.03% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 22.3% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -21.93% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 18.69% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 2-2 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 23.16% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -52.17% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 47.62% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 58% (15/26) against Bryce Elder over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 90th Percentile.
Bryce Elder allowed an OBP of just .100 (20 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .299 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 53% of Bryce Elder’s pitches (52/99) with two-strikes over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Opponents batted just .100 (2-for-20) against Bryce Elder when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 95th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 37% (184/502) against Jose Urquidy last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
45% of Jose Urquidy’s called strikeouts were elevated last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 68% of Jose Urquidy’s pitches (896/1,317) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 99th Percentile.