Reading the tea leaves on the anticipated rushing allotment is the key to our Bills-Jets SGP picks based on the best NFL odds from our best sports betting sites.
Do we trust the reports when it comes to the Jets' side of the Monday Night Football rushing equation? Doing so could make for a correlated parlay that still returns attractive odds on a winning SGP ticket.
Although James Cook is expected to take a step forward as the lead running back in Buffalo, would anyone be surprised to see the Bills' ground game continue to flow through Josh Allen?
Here are our best Bills-Jets SGP picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bills-Jets SGP predictions Week 1
- Josh Allen Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (+100) ???
- Dalvin Cook Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-155) ????
- Breece Hall Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-190) ????
Combined odds: +425 (via DraftKings)
Bills vs. Jets odds
SGP predictions for Bills vs. Jets
Allen cleared this rushing yardage total in 11 of his 16 regular-season games in 2022. He was also effective on the ground in more critical contests while notching 40 yards in four of six divisional matchups, including both games against the Jets.
Though James Cook will see plenty of backfield work, Allen's rushing prospects could be even more notable in 2023 than in 2022 due to the departure of early-down stalwart Devin Singletary. The Jets trotted out a mid-pack run defense in 2022, and Allen can take advantage again.
Allen's rushing total at FanDuel is 38.5 with -110 odds on the Over. DraftKings offers an alternate total that adds only one yard while improving the odds to +100. And as Shane Jackson notes in his trending player prop picks, Over 6.5 rushing attempts is also a quality play.
With the Jets reportedly angling to ease Breece Hall into a more prominent backfield workload as the season progresses, Dalvin Cook is expected to carry the load in Week 1 against Buffalo. Even if it weren't for a cautious approach with Hall, the narrative angle could lead to the Jets featuring Dalvin Cook more heavily in a game with his younger brother on the other side of this Monday Night Football matchup.
Assuming Cook operates as the primary running back, 44.5 rushing yards should be attainable for the workhorse coming off of his fourth straight season with 1,000-plus rushing yards.
Cook's odds at FanDuel are -110 on 47.5 rushing yards. The most comparable DraftKings line is the alternate rushing total of 44.5 yards (-155).
For more on this matchup, check out our Bills-Jets predictions, Bills-Jets player props, and Josh Allen-Aaron Rodgers props, and Garrett Wilson prop picks.
If Hall isn't garnering a standard workload in this game, take his rushing total Under. We're not knocking the talent with this selection. Rather, we're making an assumption about the workload of a prized running back for a playoff-hopeful team, and he's only just now recovered from a significant injury.
Choosing a more aggressive line at Under 39.5 yards would boost the total parlay odds to +475. But with Hall averaging 5.8 yards per carry as a rookie before his injury, we're satisfied to snare a handful of extra yards to cushion against the potential of the talented rusher breaking off a big gain on one of his rare carries.
By taking the Under on 44.5 rushing yards through DraftKings, we're treated to total parlay odds of +425. FanDuel offers Hall's rushing total at 34.5 yards, so we're making DraftKings the choice for this parlay alignment.
Bills-Jets SGP picks made 9/11/2023 at 1:20 p.m. ET.
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