The Texas Longhorns might finally be back – for real this time. Read on as we track the 2023 Big 12 conference title market based on our best college football odds.
The Texas Longhorns haven't won a conference title in football since 2005, but they're the betting favorites to hoist the trophy to cap off the team's final year in the Big 12. We've seen this movie before though, with Texas failing to live up to preseason expectations.
So, is there value further down the oddsboard in a new-look Big 12?
Here is our look at the 2023 Big 12 championship market (odds via our best sports betting apps).
Big 12 championship odds 2023
(odds accurate as of July 18)
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet | Barstool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | +105 | +105 | +100 | +100 | +105 | +110 ?? |
| Oklahoma | +340 | +380 ?? | +325 | +300 ?? | +350 | +360 |
| Kansas State | +500 | +500 | +600 | +650 ?? | +500 | +500 |
| Texas Tech | +1200 | +1100 | +900 | +1000 | +850 ?? | +1200 |
| TCU | +1600 | +2100 ?? | +2000 | +1400 ?? | +2000 | +1800 |
| Baylor | +1800 | +1600 | +2000 ?? | +1800 | +1300 ?? | +1800 |
| UCF | +3500 | +3500 | +2500 ?? | +2800 | +3500 | +4000 ?? |
| Kansas | +3500 ?? | +4800 | +5000 ? ? | +4000 | +3500 | +4000 |
| Oklahoma State | +4000 | +5000 | +4000 | +2800 ?? | +3500 | +5000 |
| Iowa State | +8000 ?? | +4000 | +5000 | +2500 ?? | +5000 | +6000 |
Check out our college football best bets and our 2023 Heisman Trophy odds!
Big 12 championship betting analysis
The Big 12 conference is as big as ever, with 14 teams making up this league for just one year. Texas and Oklahoma are set to leave for the SEC in 2024, while this season marks the debut for the likes of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF.
As a result, it is crucial to shop around our best sports betting sites to find value when placing a bet on one of these 14 teams.
For example, FanDuel is offering the best price on a TCU team that made a surprise run to the College Football Playoff a season ago. And Caesars is listing the best deal on a Kansas State squad that won last year's conference title.
Big 12 championship odds movement
A few trendy dark-horse teams have been the biggest movers in this Big 12 championship market. UCF was once trading as long as +4000, but they're now down to +2500 at BetMGM. Texas Tech has also surged up the oddsboard to be priced as a serious contender.
Additionally, Kansas is trading as short as +3500 at DraftKings after notching the program's first bowl berth since 2008 last fall.
Big 12 championship odds: Favorite
While most college football fans will roll their eyes at the idea of Texas being the team to beat in the Big 12, the Longhorns being the favorite really isn't as common as you might think. The Longhorns were ranked first in the Big 12 preseason poll in 2023 for the first time since the conference eliminated divisions in 2011.
The Longhorns might legitimat ely be back, especially with 15 starters slated to return from the 2022 team that went 8-5. Quarterback Quinn Ewers will need to show progress in his second season, but there's plenty of talent on both sides for this team to be the front-runner entering the year.
My power ratings make UT a favorite in every game except the road nonconference test with Alabama in Week 2. The Longhorns might even be double-digit favorites in more than half of their games, as there's a distant gap between them and the No. 2 team in this conference.
As such, the best preseason bet on this team is taking Texas to win the Big 12 title (+110) at Barstool. There's a very good chance that Texas at least makes the championship game in Arlington, where we would have options depending on the spread for that matchup.
Big 12 championship odds: Contender
We need to talk about the defending conference champs Kansas State, which enters the season third on the oddsboard. The Wildcats sit second in the preseason poll after earning 14 first-place votes.
KSU also sits as the No. 2 team in the conference in my preseason power ratings. But the teams in the tier below Texas are relatively similar, which makes price shopping at the best sportsbooks very important.
Quarterback Will Howard flashed his potential when he took over the starting job down the stretch in 2022, leading K-State to a 5-2 record while throwing for 1,633 yards to go along with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions.
My favorite preseason bet for K-State is taking a juiced Over on 7.5 wins, with public power ratings like TSI (created by Tyler Shoemaker) projecting more than eight wins for Chris Klieman's squad.
If you don't wan t to pay the juice, I'd also recommend taking advantage of the short spread for the 2023 Sunflower Showdown between Kansas and Kansas State. I'm betting K-State -5.5 (-110) via DraftKings against Kansas ahead of the rivalry matchup on Nov. 18.
The Wildcats have won 14 straight against their in-state rival, including 13 wins by at least a touchdown.
Big 12 championship odds: Long shot
Of all the Big 12 newcomers, UCF is in the best position to enjoy first-year success and staying power in the new league. That's why the best live betting sites are trading the Knights at +3500 when the three other newcomers are priced at +10000 or longer to win the league in 2023.
I jumped on a +4000 ticket for UCF earlier in the offseason, and with most shops since adjusting, take advantage of Barstool's rogue +4000 value to win the Big 12. I'd rather build a conference title portfolio of Texas and a few long shots (Kansas, anyone?) while fading a middle tier that's difficult to predict from a betting perspective.
There's a case the Knights should be priced closer to the second group. Bill Connelly's SP+ projects UCF to be an underdog in just three games, despite making the jump to the Power Five. Two of those three games are on the road against Kansas State and Oklahoma, and those contests could decide how much life this ticket really has in 2023.
Gus Malzahn's squad has won nine games in back-to-back years, and I expect the team to hit the ground running in the Big 12.
Big 12 championship odds: Fade
The Red Raiders have become such a trendy dark horse that there might now be value in fading some inflated prices. Specifically, I'm targeting the Red Raider s' win total with an Under 7.5 (-120) wins ticket via BetMGM.
SP+ is projecting 6.9 wins for the Red Raiders, including 4.7 in league play. TSI is predicting even more wiggle room, with a projection of 6.51 victories. More than half of Texas Tech's games are projected to be within one score, so the number of those contests that go in the team's favor will determine the outcome of this win total.
The Red Raiders won all four of their one-score games during an 8-5 campaign in 2022. Head coach Joey McGuire's aggressive decision-making on fourth down played a part, but the Red Raiders were probably fortunate to win all four matchups. I'll bet on some regression in Lubbock.
Recent Big 12 championship winners
| Year | Team |
|---|---|
| 2022 | Kansas State |
| 2021 | Baylor |
| 2020 | Oklahoma |
| 2019 | Oklahoma |
| 2018 | Oklahoma |
| 2017 | Oklahoma |
| 2016 | Oklahoma |
| 2015 | Oklahoma |
| 2014 | Baylor, Texas Christian |
| 2013 | Baylor |
Big 12 championship FAQs
The Kansas State Wildcats defeated the TCU Horned Frogs in the 2022 Big 12 championship game.
The 2023 Dr. Pepper Big 12 Football Championship will be decided on Saturday, Dec. 2. The game is slated to begin at 11 a.m ET.
The 2023 Dr. Pepper Big 12 Football Championship will take place at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be broadcasted on ABC.
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