Colorado shocked the world with a Week 1 upset over TCU, but we think the market might be overreacting a bit to the hype, so we're taking a look at the best remaining value bet for Colorado via our best college football betting sites.
In the biggest story of Week 1, Colorado earned a 45-42 road victory over TCU during Deion Sanders' debut. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders threw for 510 yards and four touchdowns. Travis Hunter played more than 120 snaps as a cornerback and receiver, logging 11 catches and one interception as a two-way star.
There is no question that we all underestimated the Buffaloes entering the 2023 campaign after they won just one game last year. This team has a lot of firepower, and will be must-see television on a weekly basis during its final year in the Pac-12.
But the hype might be getting out of control at this p oint. Colorado's futures prices were adjusted across the board, including a two-game jump in the win total and a massive leap in its odds to win the Pac-12. Hunter became the biggest liability in the Heisman market overnight.
Bettors clearly believe in the Buffs at this point, but is there value in fading these inflated prices?
Check out our best value bet for Colorado based on the odds from our best sports betting apps (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
How Colorado's odds moved after Week 1
Colorado's college football odds unsurprisingly saw the biggest movement following the opening weekend.
In the Pac-12 odds, the Buffaloes are listed anywhere from 9/1 to 25/1 to win the league at most of our best sports betting sites. FanDuel is currently offering a 55/1 price on the Bu ffs to win the conference after trading them as long as 150/1 entering the season.
From a win total perspective, Colorado experienced a two-game jump from its preseason value. This team had a win total of 3.5 in August, but that line has been moved to 5.5 following Week 1. DraftKings is offering the lowest total at 5, with the Over priced at -155.
It's not just the futures market, either.
Colorado was more than a touchdown underdog ahead of its Week 2 home opener against Nebraska in the lookahead markets this past offseason. The Buffaloes are now laying -3 ahead of Saturday's matchup, indicating a rare leap from a power-ratings perspective. For those tempted by Nebraska, Caesars is offering a juiced +3.5 as of this writing.
But what is the best value bet after all these adjustments?
Best value bet on Colorado
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Perception of what the Buffs can accomplish in 2023 might have changed, but let's not forget that there were legitimate concerns regarding this team ahead of Week 1.
Colorado took in a huge transfer class to add in some major talent on both sides of the ball, which was on full display last weekend. But there isn't much depth on this team, so what happens if Hunter can't play 100-plus snaps every week or Sanders has to miss any time?
The biggest area of weakness for the Buffs entering the season was their play in the trenches, which didn't exactly go away in Week 1. According to collegefootballdata.com, TCU posted a line yards advantage of 130-73 and a line yards per rush edge of 3.5-2.6 in the ope ner. The Horned Frogs also lost the turnover margin, including an interception by Hunter to spoil a promising drive in the red zone.
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It was a thrilling game, but betting on Colorado to keep up this pace throughout Pac-12 play is asking a bit much. The Pac-12 became the first league ever to start a year 13-0, meaning there are no easy wins on Colorado's schedule.
The Buffaloes are absolutely capable of reaching a bowl game, though we don't want to overreact to one week. The market thought this was at best a four-win team all summer, and there is no reason to project such a massive leap after one victory.
FanDuel is offering this same Under at -160, making Caesars the best place to bet against Colorado becoming bowl-eligible in Year 1 of the Prime Era. Keep this receipt, Deion.
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