Bettors should be on triple-double alert as Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets take on Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzles on Friday. Jon Metler shares three of his favorite NBA same-game parlays for Friday's games using the latest NBA odds.
I believe there's a strong likelihood that we will witness a Jokic masterclass on Friday against the Grizzles, and my same game parlay illustrates this thought.
FanDuel also decided to taunt us by posting an intriguing price on one of Durant's props for his second game as a Phoenix Sun.
Here are our NBA SGP picks for Friday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Friday's NBA SGP picks
| Game | Props | Combined Odds |
| Nets-Celtics | Smart 6+ assists, Bridges Under 21.5 points, Brown Over 24.5 points | +678 |
| Suns-Bulls | Vucevic Over 17.5 points, Durant Over 3.5 assists, Beverley Over 3.5 assists | +798 |
| Grizzles-Nuggets | Jokic Over 23.5 points/14+ rebounds, Morant Under 8.5 assists | +516 |
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Grizzles vs. Nuggets odds
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NBA SGP predictions: Nets vs. Celtics
The fact that Smart has gone Under his assist total for four consecutive games doesn't deter me from betting on this prop. In fact, I'm playing an alternate Over. The assists can accumulate quickly when you play with as many shooters as Smart does on the Celtics. With Smart's recent trend toward the Under, we can buy a favorable price on Friday, as I have his prop of six or more assists priced at -115.
Brooklyn Bridges has been filling up the stat sheet since joining the Nets, but 21.5 points is a little too high, particularly against a stout Celtics defense. The Under is trading with juice as high as -138 at Pinnacle, and I expect that this prop will continue to steam towards the Under throughout the day. Bridges is projected to score 19.8 points, so the Under 21.5 should be trading at -160 instead of -120.
For a straight bet on this prop, take your action to Caesars, which is trading Over 24.5 points on Brown at -104. That's by far the best price available on Brown's Over, though I don't expect it to last long. As Brown is projected to score 26.6 points against the Nets, the Over 24.5 points should be trading at -135. The pricing on FanDuel is higher than Caesars, but we still see a nice edge here.
NBA SGP predictions: Suns vs. Bulls
I don't even know where to begin with a breakdown of this absolutely fire prop. Firstly, FanDuel has a rogue price of Over 17.5 (-106) while other sportsbooks such as DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM ar e either -130 or higher. Vucevic is also projected to exceed this total with 18.9 points, which means this prop should trade at -130, putting our price in line with several other sportsbooks. It's hard not to fall in love with this Vucevic prop!
In Durant's first game as a Phoenix Sun, I wagered on the Over for his assist prop. This bet didn't receive the coveted green check mark, but I'm definitely coming back for more on Friday if FanDuel is going to trade the Over 3.5 assists at +130. The projections indicate that Durant will drop four dimes, which means (spoiler alert!) that this prop shouldn't be trading at plus money. The Over 3.5 assists should be trading at -110 according to this projection.
Beverley has certainly brought a different element to the Bulls' locker room, and his willingness to create offense for other players is a strong fit with the Bulls' starting lineup. Beverle y has been averaging 4.8 assists per game since joining the Bulls, and while the sportsbooks adjusted his prop in order to reflect his level of play, the adjustment was not substantial enough. Beverley should be trading at +100 instead of +114 for Over 3.5 assists.
NBA SGP predictions: Grizzlies vs. Nuggets
I considered attacking this prop through the 25-plus points market (+100) to see if we could find even more value since Jokic is projected to score 25.9 points against the Grizzles, but the edge was just a few decimal points worse than the Over 23.5 points at (-118). We're seeing a positive expected value of 11% on this wager, since the Over is priced at -118 on a total of 23.5.
Jokic's total of 12.5 rebounds may appear daunting considering he averages 11.7 rebounds per game, but I'm actually being even more aggressive and attacking the alternate total o f 14-plus rebounds. Jokic is projected to grab 13.8 rebounds against the Grizzles, which means this prop should trade at +101, giving us a positive expected value of 4%. I'm using the alternate total rather than the normal total of 12.5 (-138) because the total of 12.5 (-138) shows a positive expected value of only 1% based on our projections.
The Under is showing value for Morant's props across the board Friday, but the assist prop stands out above the rest. It's projected that Morant will drop 8.1 assists against the Nuggets, which isn't nearly enough when the Over 8.5 is trading at -111. I have Morant priced at -137 to go Under the total based on this projection.
NBA player prop picks made 03/03/2023 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
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